London: There has been a decline in COVID-19 infection rate in the United Kingdom. Due to it the team at Oxford University developing a COVID-19 vaccine believes there efforts may not be successful. The Oxford University team have said that the chances of the trial yielding ‘no result’ are now 50 per cent, ‘The Telegraph’ reported.
Number of volunteers decreasing
The Oxford team last week announced the advance human trial of the vaccine will involve up to 10,260 volunteers. It explained when the results of the trial will be available. The university said that to assess whether the vaccine works to protect from COVID-19 a comparison has to be done. The team will compare the number of infections in the control group with the number of infections in the vaccinated group. For this purpose, it is necessary for a small number of study participants to develop COVID-19.
Official statement
“How quickly we reach the numbers required will depend on the levels of virus transmission in the community. If transmission remains high, we may get enough data in a couple of months to see if the vaccine works. However, if transmission levels drop, this could take up to six months,” the university said in a statement.
This is the reason why recruitment of those who have a higher chance of being exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus is being prioritised. It is an effort to capture the efficacy data as quickly as possible.
Success rate probability
“It’s a race against the virus disappearing, and against time,” Professor Adrian Hill, director of the university’s Jenner Institute said. “We said earlier that there was an 80 per cent chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50 per cent chance that we get no result at all,” Hill added.
The professor told ‘The Telegraph’ that if fewer than 20 of the 10,000 volunteers in the trial test positive, the results may be useless.
However, Professor Andrew Pollard, head of the Oxford Vaccine Group, last week assured that ‘the clinical studies are progressing very well’.
Earlier, drugmaker ‘AstraZeneca’ finalised its licence agreement with Oxford University for the recombinant adenovirus vaccine.
Agencies