The great political irony of the war between Ukraine and Russia is that Ukraine’s hope for getting membership of NATO, which ostensibly caused the Russian invasion, has turned out to be illusory, a mirage. The cruellest part of Ukraine’s desperate attempt to be brought under the security umbrella of NATO is that Finland has got the membership and Sweden is all set to be inducted into the military alliance. All this happened when NATO is doing much better now thanks to the “electroshock” administered by the invasion of Ukraine as famously put by French President Emmanuel Macron. Four years ago, Macron had declared NATO “brain dead.”
This perhaps explains the picture of a sombre-faced Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy taken at the recent summit of NATO in Vilnius, Lithuania. It went viral as his facial expression was interpreted as a reflection of his frustration over not getting the membership for which his country has already been forced to pay too heavy a price in the form of loss of lives, land, displacement of thousands of people and destruction of homes and infrastructure by the Russian war machine.
Also Read
Ukraine’s cause is in a way betrayed by NATO as the latter has now grown from 30 to 31 members and one more is to be added soon. Finland’s membership has now been activated and Sweden’s membership is on track following a last-minute U-turn by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The inclusion of the two new members means NATO will be enriched with strong defence forces as the geographical location of the two countries will enable it to reign over the Baltic Sea.
Erdogan is astute enough to withdraw his objection which had resulted in blocking the delivery of American F-16s which Turkey desperately needs. He also wants to curry favour with the West for investment to revive his ailing economy. He has perhaps been emboldened by the revolt of Prigozhin against his mentor, Putin, to brush aside Russian objections to his decision on the new NATO members.
But, Ukraine is in a pitiable position even as the prospect of fixing a concrete timetable for membership afterwards looks bleak. The US, which calls the shots in NATO by paying two-thirds of its expenditure, has made it clear it regards membership for Ukraine as a distant possibility. The US, it seems, is in no mood to incur the wrath of Russia by giving its nod for granting NATO membership to Ukraine which would mean direct confrontation with the Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The utterances of British defence secretary, Ben Wallace and the US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan are by no means flattering for Ukraine. They reminded the latter of the need for “gratitude” for all that the West has done so far for it, providing it with weapons and aid to frustrate Russia’s design to occupy the country. That was the unkindest cut of all as it is Ukraine which is paying the heavy human cost of war every day.
Kyiv finds itself in a trap. It calculated the possibility that it would be inducted into NATO which would forestall attempts by Russia to forcibly occupy the country. But, Putin used it as an alibi for the invasion. To the woes of Ukraine, NATO leadership has virtually ruled out its inclusion into the alliance in the near future. It now has no option but to wait for the day when the allies agree and when the conditions are right.
Zelenskyy is left in the lurch. He has to defend his country against Russia’s might with whatever help he gets in the form of weaponry from the West and nothing more. By denying Ukraine NATO membership a historic opportunity seems to have been missed.
India too has a lesson to learn from the Ukraine experience. The manner in which the West promoted Ukraine and initially tried to build Zelenskyy as a global hero should draw attention from the Indian Establishment. The style in which Prime Minister Modi was feted in Western capitals such as Washington DC and Paris recently had similarities to Zelenskyy in early 2022. This should be of special interest to Indians. Undoubtedly, the lingering war in Ukraine has destroyed most of its infrastructure and killed hundreds of thousands of people while it has successfully weakened the Russian military edifice. The way international politics and economy are moving, indications are that China will be the next target of the West. The world knows that countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines and a few others would be no match against China. The requirement of foot soldiers in Europe was met by Ukraine. Similarly, the requirement of manpower in a land battle against China in Asia can only be fulfilled by India. The West would prefer a long term India-China conflict where the US and countries like the UK and France can sell their military hardware and yet not get into any direct armed conflict with the Red Dragon. Once India takes on the brunt of the Chinese war machine, allies of the US such as Taiwan and South Korea could remain neutral and passive and thereby saved from destruction. Sometimes, more often than not, extreme bravado and conceit of a leader may result in the country getting decimated.
