Having been floored in a fight at the Assembly hustings in several states, the natural instinct on the part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP was to turn around and perform a trapeze act. The Budget proposals introduced by the government should, for all practical purposes, have been an interim budget, or a vote on account, as the days of this government was already numbered. With weeks left for announcement of fresh Lok Sabha polls, the Modi government will soon be put on oxygen. This was time for poise and restraint.
But, in an obvious act of hoodwinking the electorate, the government chose to come up with a full budget for the year, and turned it into a tale of an elusive Eldorado, or an “account for vote” as a former finance minister from the Congress party has put it. Freebies for all, which would entail an additional expenditure of trillions, are offered in different ways to woo the poor, farmers, rural sector and the salaried middle class.
The clear attempt of the government is to take the nation to the edge, and yet win the Lok Sabha polls. What, after that, is the big question. Financial experts are not convinced as to how the next government — on whose shoulders this heavy burden will fall –can extricate itself from an embarrassing situation; namely failing to find the resources to meet the expenditure for payment of Rs 3000 a month to 10 crore labourers in the unorganised sector, and Rs 6,000 a year in installments to each of the 12 crore farmers. Put on the line of hope, thus, are 22 crore families, or as high as 50 crore people. Add to this, some 20 crore people of families benefiting from the raising of the income tax limit and tax exemption from Rs 2.5 lakh to Rs 5 lakh a year. The interesting angle is that the Central Government has announced a 10 per cent reservation for the economically weaker sections of the upper caste. This reservation is valid for families with an annual income of Rs8 lakh. So, with Rs8 lakh as base for economically weak and tax exemption for those with an income of Rs5 lakh seems like a complete disconnect in the governance system.
More than half the population is promised a special benefit one way or the other. However, it is interesting to note that the Union Government has no mechanism at its command to get data of labourers or farmers who deserve to benefit from such largesse. It will have to depend on the overburdened state bureaucracy for such detailed information.
Governmental exchequer would get less money from taxes, and would still have to pay more to meet the heavy demand for funds release for such fancy programmes.
Modi came to power by flashing a magic wand. He would now need another magic wand to organise the resources for his new outreach plans. The national economy could go into a tailspin. If Modi does not return to power, this could be the worst harm he could still inflict on his rivals who would then run the nation. They would be between the devil and the deep sea, or caught between the proverbial two stools – being tempted to implement a promise the outgoing government had made, and not finding the resources for the same. The new government will naturally have to come up with a revised budget, and voting is necessary for some of the measures promised in the Modi budget. Either the PM would laugh is way back to power by raising the expectations of the people or he will laugh his way out of government, having put his rivals in an unenviable position.
But, elections are less about promises. The Sonia-Manmohan era’s subsidized rice scheme for BPL families, drawing about 40 crore people into the scheme, did not help UPA return for another term in 2014. Modi now has used his trump card to win electoral support, but chances are also that this could backfire not only on him but also on the nation. Question is, will the people allow themselves to be fooled for a second time. The euphoria of the present raining of doles – after the Congress party came up with a loan waiver for farmers in Madhya Pradesh and elsewhere – might not last. Modi and his government would likely be judged by what has been achieved and not by what has been promised for future. Hundreds of issues will come up for debate, and not the least of them being Demonetisation and its after-effects on the economy and the lives of people across the social spectrum.
During 2014 elections while campaigning at Talcher in Odisha, Modi had said that he will bring in black money stashed abroad and give Rs 15 lakh in every bank account. This is on record. Now, the said Rs 15 lakh has been forgotten. Modi is offering Rs 6,000 to farmers, out of which he will give Rs 2,000, as of now. The PM has said that all this is only a trailer. The main movie is yet to come. Voters will now have to judge if he can be trusted with his promises.