Anita Saluja
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar were never friends but they were forced to join hands, given political compulsions in the state. The results of Bihar Assembly elections will once again decide whether they will be seen together, or will it mark the end of their pretentious relationship.
Though as of now the BJP leadership is claiming that it will make Nitish the CM, much depends on the poll outcome. The BJP is ready with its Plan B, of joining hands with Chirag Paswan’s LJP, who has no qualms declaring himself as the Hanuman of PM Modi.
The BJP is walking the tightrope by ensuring that it doesn’t rub its two alliance partners of NDA on the wrong side. However, given the first opportunity, it will always prefer to form government with the LJP, if it manages to get enough seats.
The relations between Modi and Nitish have always been strained. However, due to political compulsions, both their parties were forced to join hands in 2005 to form the government. Nitish owes the formation of his government mostly to late BJP veteran Arun Jaitley, who, through his good offices, was able to convince the BJP leadership.
I recall that during the BJP national executive meeting in Patna in June 2010, Nitish had thrown tantrums by raising objections over the then Gujarat CM Narendra Modi. Both of them were CMs then and enjoyed popularity in their respective states. In the regional papers of Bihar, Modi got his advertisements published, flaunting the donation given to the flood-affected state. This naturally offended Nitish, who refused to invite Modi at the dinner hosted by him for the BJP leadership during the BJP national executive. The dinner was eventually cancelled, as LK Advani, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj and Venkaiah Naidu refused to go without Modi.
Ever since Modi was projected as the PM candidate, Nitish has been at loggerheads with the BJP, eventually pulling out of NDA in 2013. For the Bihar Assembly elections in 2015, Nitish joined hands with his political bête-noire Lalu Prasad Yadav and went on to retain power in the state. However, he was forced to join hands with the BJP in 2017, when Lalu refused to accept the demand for the ouster of his son and Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav from the government over graft charges.
With no love lost between Modi and Nitish the duo would dump each other at the first opportunity. In fact, Modi is working towards the same plot and would be too pleased to sever his ties with Nitish if the plan to distance him works out for him in these Assembly elections.
It’s not for nothing that Nitish is not to be seen in posters of Modi. It’s a well-worked out strategy of BJP which is keen to garner votes in the name of Modi, fully-aware that the popularity of Nitish is gradually waning.
The BJP, which had earlier vowed to wipe-out the trace of Congress from the nation, has gone a step ahead by severing its ties with its own allies – Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab. The next party will be JD (U), if Nitish fails to live-up to its expectations and fails to cobble-up the numbers. The ultimate goal of Modi is to form BJP’s own government in Bihar.
For Nitish, who was once termed as the ‘Chanakya of Bihar,’ it’s a do-or-die battle. His failure in the elections will shut all doors for him for future alliances. Having run the government for 15 years, his popularity has taken a beating, with no out-of-the-box ideas to end the woes of Biharis. People are disillusioned, with no hopes of getting jobs and lawlessness touching its peak. He, too, is aware the BJP will dump him if he is defeated at the hustings.
Heckled and hooted down in rallies, Nitish has been losing his cool and shouting at audience, giving enough hints to the public that he is on a sticky wicket. Depending on the results on November 10, it will be seen where the JD(U) will finally end its electoral journey. So far, Nitish is at the receiving-end, being attacked by Tejashwi on the one side and Chirag on the other.
BJP, too, will not mind the downfall of Nitish, but not at the expense of the survival of its own government. It would be too pleased to dump him, if it is able to cobble-up the majority for itself, with the help of Chirag. It is not for nothing that it has given him the full liberty to attack its own coalition partner and the CM during the crucial Assembly elections. As of now, the people are being fooled by the politicians. However, the Indian electorate, especially Biharis cannot be taken for granted.
The writer is a Delhi-based journalist.