The political outlook of the US now looks considerably different from what it was just a week ago before the midterm elections were held. Going by past records, pollsters were then predicting a rout of the Democrats and a surge of the red wave, meaning a near-certain return of Trumpism or the Right-wing politics of the Republicans. The voters however have spoken their mind differently. They have not given a decisive mandate either to the Democrats or the Republicans. But, they have stopped the red wave and dashed the ambitions of former President Donald Trump and his rabid followers to take control of the House and the Senate and cripple Joe Biden’s presidency.
Now, in a seemingly historic turn of events, the Democrats are feeling more secure about where they stand, while Republicans struggle to regain their balance. The Democrats have retained control of the Senate, after winning a close race in the state of Nevada. The tally shows the Democrats have bagged 50 seats and the Republicans 49. Even if the latter wins the last remaining seat, there would be a tie in which case Vice President Kamala Harris would put her casting vote to help the Democrats pass whatever legislations they seek to enact. Even in the House the Republicans may marginally go ahead of the Democrats as most of the candidates Trump publicly endorsed have lost. Midterm elections in the US have traditionally gone against the ruling dispensation since 1930. But, the outcome this year has become stunning, indeed, with the Democrats reversing the historical trend.
The question that is uppermost in the minds of the people is how the impossible has been made possible by Joe Biden who is considered old and ineffective. Some Trump loyalists also claimed he was suffering from dementia and yet this success has bewildered most American political analysts. A combination of factors could be responsible for the late surge of the blue wave, for the Democrats’ better than expected performance. But, two factors may have primarily influenced the outcome – the threat to democracy that a return of the Republicans was perceived to pose and the recent Supreme Court ruling overturning the Roe Vs Wade verdict that had accorded constitutional right to abortion half a century ago.
During the run-up to the midterms President Biden made the threat to democracy issue under the Republicans headed by Trump as the main electoral plank for the Democrats. But, the issue of abortion rendered illegal by the Supreme Court ruling seems to have become the single major factor for the defeat of Republican candidates as women voters rallied behind the Democrats who supported the right to abortion. In fact, Biden had predicted American women would revolt and things seem to have happened as predicted by him. This caused a setback to the Republican’s hope of a ‘red wave’ which, they felt, was fuelled by widespread economic distress. The Democrats defied historical expectations for defeat of the party in power in the first major election of the post-Roe era. It is not without reason that a jubilant Biden told a crowd of supporters at the Howard Theatre in Washington: “Women in America made their voices heard, man.”
As a clear picture of the results emerges, it becomes evident that abortion proved a defining issue. Fury over the loss of federal abortion protections galvanised women and young people who gifted unexpected victories to the Democrats in the hope of new protections for reproductive rights. It is foolhardy for the Republicans to hope for a favourable outcome in midterm polls when the country’s nearly half of the people have their body autonomy put under threat. This is the main reason for young people and women showing up to exercise their franchise. In fact, newly registered women comprised more than two-thirds of the fresh voters.
Exit polls conducted by news networks by Edison Research showed that abortion was the top issue for many Americans, especially people under the age of 30. About 60% of voters said they were dissatisfied or angry with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe. In every state where an abortion-related measure was on the ballot, voters chose either to enshrine protections or reject new limits. And it was a decisive issue in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where the future of abortion access was at risk.
American voters, especially women, many of whom were in the forefront of the ‘Me Too’ movement against sexual abuses, have once again proved that they will revolt when there is denial of women’s biological freedom. These elections, once again, proved the US to be an extremely mature and aware democracy.