Ashok Mahapatra
The world is facing turbulent times. Economists and historians have expressed different views on China’s role in this and visualised as to where the world is headed to. Other views also abound, coming as they do from global leaders, diplomats and political analysts. China has been growing in stature for the past two decades, its economic clout steadily on the rise and military muscle showing a matching build-up over the years.
At the same time, China has its internal problems, like the separatist urges in Xinjiang province in the west as also Hong Kong down south. Some of these problems have accentuated of late, primarily due to the present pandemic situation. The Communist Party has ruthlessly subjugated its masses since 1949 through brute force. The only thing that scares them is an uprising by the masses. After all, that is the force the Communists led by Mao Zedong used to capture power.
From the looks of it, the COVID-19 pandemic in China has created a situation that can very easily precipitate into a mass uprising. The large number of Chinese factories that provide mass employment are now finding it difficult to find markets and buyers worldwide. China has a blend of rich urban and poor rural population. The rich are small in size and, like in India, the poor form the bulk of the population. Unlike India, however, China does not have a large middle class to power an internal market for absorption of many of the consumer goods being produced there. It will have to depend on other nations to sell its products. Note the fact that China has in recent years turned itself into a factory for the entire world. The US depends largely on Chinese goods. Asia, Australia, the Middle East and Africa too depend on China for their consumer as also electronic goods.
Reports from China say the rate of unemployment is slowly but surely turning worse and the scenario might slip out of the government’s and the Communist Party’s control. This might be the reason why the party is increasingly adopting a macho stand, as hat’s what comes easily to the Chinese leadership.
It must be noted that China has been flexing its muscles due the skewed balance of trade in its favour. It is banking on the fact that the world would not challenge it due to the fear of a collapse of the world economy. What China forgets is that when pushed to the wall, the world order would strike back if only to restore the equilibrium. This is how, in layman’s terms, one deals with a bully. China seems to forget history.
Consider what will happen if the world decides to give China a run for its money and not source finished products from there. There would indeed be a great degree of discomfort for people around the world who buy these products. However, it would not be the end of the world for them. China’s own internal markets do not have the capacity to absorb this fallout. As a result, the factories would be forced to shut, leading to a redundancy of workers.
It is common knowledge that China holds an unusually large sum of bonds issued by various governments. If pushed to no other alternative, China may decide to cash in on the various government bonds. If that happens, the governments concerned should bite the bullet and say, let them do so. I am sure that economists can provide solutions for the governments to honour their commitments. This would lead to China having an unusually large sum of foreign currency in its hands and would need to find a platform to park the same. It would also need to devise ways and means to spend the same, which will be difficult in the present scenario. This would put the Chinese central bank in a fix and put China in the same situation as of King Midas.
China has been flexing its military muscles for quite some time. It has become more pronounced since President Xi has taken comaplete control as unchallenged Leader for Life, the first leader to win that supreme slot after Mao. After the removal of term limit for the presidency in 2017, he has slowly but surely been consolidating his position within the party and eliminating any threat to his leadership. He is unassailable.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic has shaken the ruling elite in China and dragged them out of their comfort zones, also as governments worldwide are pushing back against China’s hegemony. After ages, the Communist Party bosses are now fearful that, sooner or later, the people will rise and hold the ruling elite to account. With a view to diverting attention, as had happened in Mao’s time, the leadership is trying to invoke the nationalist pride through military adventure. It does not matter if the claims are one-sided and not legitimate.
A careful study of history will show that the present leadership has bitten off more than what it can chew. Whenever the country has started a military-level confrontation on more than one front simultaneously, it stretched its logistic line to the extent that it became impossible to sustain. On the other hand, the adversaries who are being challenged would be doing so on a single front and would find it easier to maintain their logistics. In such a scenario, it should not be difficult for the world to call China’s bluff.
The world is indeed seeing the evolution of a new order. After all, the only constant is change. How it ultimately evolves is anybody’s guess. Nonetheless, it is time the world got over the fact that it is riding a tiger and therefore it is safer to continue sitting on it, rather than quit. The only way to confront China is to use all the force as to slay a dragon.
The writer is a former Director, Maritime Safety Division of the International Maritime Organisation of the United Nations, a post that is equal to UN Assistant Secretary General. He writes under the pseudonym, Disobedient Pen.