In the midst of what appears to be misplaced complacency prevailing in the country about COVID-19 being fairly under control, on April 17, Delhi reported a fresh outbreak with 517 positive cases. This is four times the caseload in the capital at the beginning of the month. Bad news is coming from Haryana too where the count has increased by four times on the same day, though the total number is less than that of Delhi. It may be noted that these figures are culled from amongst those people who feel unwell and decide to get tested. There may be many more who do not or cannot avail the test facility.
It is a matter of concern that for the first time since the third week of January, active cases in the country have begun to rise again. Over 10 states and Union territories are currently reporting cases in single digits. Many may draw solace from the fact that till date, spike in cases has been restricted to Delhi and Haryana only and there are no worrisome reports from other parts of the country. Other major cities, including Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Kolkata or Pune have not yet reported very high numbers. This may also be dependent on how thoroughly and efficiently testing is being done at those places.
Delhi has, for some time, been reporting over 100 cases per day on an average. But, in the last few days there is a clear surge. The cases have been rising daily since April 12 and the number has crossed 450 on April 16, the highest in six weeks. Similarly, Haryana’s tally of 202 cases that day is said to be the highest in five weeks. It is not yet clear why the cases are rising in Delhi and Haryana, but experts point out the most plausible explanation could be withdrawal of the mask mandate and removal of all restrictions. However, these moves have been taken all over the country where schools and offices have reopened and public transport is being filled to the capacity. This might suggest Delhi and Haryana situation could be replicated in other parts of the country sooner or later. The reasons attributed to lower cases in the rest of the country are wide coverage of vaccines and the absence of any new variant other than the Omicron variety. Some experts also opine that the latest variant may have given immunity to those affected, though there is no definite scientific data to support this assumption.
In such a situation, disconcerting reports are emanating from China which has locked down its financial centre, Shanghai, for the past two weeks. Many of the 26 million residents of Shanghai, who are confined to their homes, have complained that they are facing acute food and other essential items’ shortages. The government is finding it challenging to supply every household with daily necessities since the supply chain has been crippled by China’s stringent measures. In China, every COVID-19 case, including the asymptomatic ones, is quarantined in government-run facilities. The political establishment in China has not allowed relaxation of measures and a way back to normal social and economic life the way it has been done in the rest of the world taking advantage of the benefits of vaccination. Singapore has aggressively vaccinated its population and offered incentives to do so.
China’s argument is that its strategy of restrictions has enabled it to avoid a major second wave and it wants to continue with that policy. China is the only country still out of reach from the rest of the world. A Chinese news agency report insists “a dynamic zero-COVID approach remains crucial” and that lowering of guard would spell disaster for its 1.4 billion people, including 267 million aged 60 or above.
With the possibility of a fourth wave, India needs to take note and stay prepared. Since schools have reopened and all establishments have bounced back to business as usual, India could be staring at yet another grueling COVID wave in near future.