The hurriedly called Quad meeting late last week has expressed concern over the possibility of a déjà vu of the Russian type invasion of Ukraine in the Indo-Pacific region too. This is not simply an attempt by the four-nation group comprising the USA, Japan, Australia and India to use its platform to condemn Russia’s violation of the sovereignty of Ukraine. The dominant players of the group knew well India would not be on the same page with the other members on the issue for its dependence on Russia on many matters, especially the supply of arms and other defence hardware. So, they cleverly brought in the concerns for peaceful coexistence in the Indo-Pacific region to make India rethink its position on unquestioned support to Russia. For, if China emulates Russia’s example and forces its way into Taiwan or occupy Indian territories more aggressively than it has, so far, been doing, India would be in serious trouble. Should that happen, it is quite possible India may not get support from its Quad allies and the international community for its silence on Russian adventurism in Ukraine.
The differences among the Quad partners came out in the open with India refusing to condemn Russia or its aggression against Ukraine. Predictably, US President Joe Biden made a strident pitch against Russia, while Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was no less vocal in the grouping’s aim of upholding territorial sovereignty and integrity. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison took a clearer position and supported tough sanctions on Russia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, was non-committal on condemnation of Russia’s aggression. During the Quad meet, Japanese PM Kishida was the most vocal against Russia. He directly raised the issue of unilateral changes to the status quo by force or coercion “like the recent Russian aggression against Ukraine” and said such violation of the rights of a sovereign and independent country is not acceptable. The joint statement at the end of the meeting did not contain a word of condemnation of Russia’s continued actions in Ukraine. This reflected the differences among the partners of the group, while the failure to speak in one voice against Russia is likely to encourage China to follow the Russian model hoping to escape with impunity after similar adventures in Taiwan or on Indian territories.
Indian diplomacy is now being tested to its limits. For, India’s silence on the entire issue through its abstentions from voting against Russia at the United Nations is already sending wrong signals to China, which may boomerang on New Delhi. India has been routinely abstaining from voting against any resolution that seeks to punish Russia for its actions. It broke away from 149 countries that voted a resolution critical of Moscow. This came on the back of a similar stand at the UN Security Council (UNSC). What would be a real cause for worry for India, should Ukraine fall and the ongoing war is clinched in Russia’s favour, is that China may be emboldened to launch similar offensives against Taiwan and, very probably even India, with which it is already engaged in a tough border standoff that had resulted in the killing of 20 Indian soldiers in June 2020.
Seen in this light the differences in Quad does not augur well even for its agenda of having a rules-based world order aimed at curbing China’s territorial ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region. Obviously, China is watching and letting Russia go berserk in Ukraine.
In a way Indian diplomacy is setting a dangerous trend by merely expressing concern for humanitarian crisis in war-torn Ukraine. It is unlikely to get others to stand up for it when faced with Chinese aggression. China is obviously watching how far the USA and others can go in checkmating Russia. It will surely calculate its moves vis-a-vis Arunachal Pradesh on the basis of Russia’s fate in Ukraine.
The Quad at the present juncture, maybe, cannot afford to alienate India, a critical partner in the global-strategic plan to balance the rise of China as a potential Asian superpower. Yet, India will find it difficult to defend its position should Russian occupying forces begin committing war crimes and human rights violations in contravention of the Geneva Convention, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other related global treaties.
The only aspect in which the Quad spoke unitedly was to send humanitarian aid and assistance to the people of Ukraine. India supported it unequivocally as it had no direct reference to condemnation of Russia’s actions. But, the strategy of playing safe may prove counter-productive. India needs to think out of the box as the world order is changing and it cannot afford to have limited strategic options. Just as India cannot alienate Russia for the latter’s time-tested friendship and support in times of danger coming from its foes and the USA’s bullying tactic, so also, it has to respond to the new international reality. Also, recent history has demonstrated that Putin’s Russia is not overtly pro India. It has carried out military exercises with Pakistan Army in conjunction with the PLA of China recently. Indian leadership has to understand that the Communist leaders of the erstwhile Soviet Union and present day Russian leadership are not to be viewed as the same. India used to harp on the Non-Aligned Movement which had many other nations involved at that time. As the old USSR has changed, so also has the Non-Aligned Movement of yesteryears that India used to lead once upon a time.
The danger to India is now far greater than before as China is much stronger and more ambitious than in the past. In addition, Russia and China have closed ranks and are unitedly taking on the US and allies as their common enemy. If Russia manages to eventually take over Ukraine and no armed disputes continue, China, to the detriment of India, will be emboldened. If Russia loses the war and gets no visibly clear control of Ukraine then India loses all remaining goodwill of the entire Western world. The precursor to such a situation is visible in the demand of British MP Johnny Mercer recently urging Prime Minister Boris Johnson to stop foreign aid worth more than 50 million pounds being sent to India because of its repeated abstention in resolutions at the UNSC against Russia for invading Ukraine. Mercer claims there are far worthier causes now. Even Israel, playing a mediator’s role today, will be forced to keep away from India.
Going forward, India has to plan for a friendless world.