Disturbing reports have come that China has constructed three villages, about 5 km from the Bum La Pass near the tri-junction of India, China and Bhutan in western Arunachal Pradesh. It could be a major step in realising China’s territorial claims in the region as part of its grand design of settling Hun Chinese and Tibetan members of the Communist Party of China in the area. Satellite images of construction done by China in Bhutanese sovereign territory, just 7 km from Doklam where Indian soldiers had a face-off with Chinese soldiers in 2017, show the villages are within the Chinese territory. What is happening in the region is more than territorial disputes. It seems after the honeymoon between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping has become redundant, China is showing its true colours mixing aggression with its strategic-diplomatic-economic initiatives wooing Pakistan and Nepal over to its side. Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe and other diplomats have been too frequently shuttling between Pakistan and Nepal for some time in a clear attempt to encircle India.
As the BJP-led-government was following a myopic foreign policy vis-a-vis the neighbouring countries, the linchpin of which being anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim rhetoric, China consolidated its position with overtures to Pakistan and Nepal. There has been clearly a rift between the government and the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat on this issue as their perceptions about China run at cross purposes.
The chemistry between Modi and Xi, as reflected in their meetings in Gujarat in recent times, led to a number of delegations from Gujarat visiting various parts of China for investment. Adani Group-operated Mundra Port signed a ‘sister port’ agreement with Shanghai port, 5,700 nautical miles away. Modi had visited China when he was chief minister. Chinese media then praised sky high his so-called Gujarat Model. However, during the run-up to the 2014 general election Modi had ridiculed the UPA government’s ‘soft’ handling of China. But, once he became the PM, his government showed keenness to do business with China. Regulations were eased and changed in favour of Chinese companies, leading to a boost in Chinese exports to India. From hi-tech components for computers and mobile phones to firecrackers and idols of Ganesha from China flooded the Indian market. Even everyday consumer goods such as lamps and torches made in China were sold at prices cheaper than products made in India. Chinese companies initially set up projects in industrial clusters of Gujarat. But after 2014 they began to expand in a big way. China seemed to have set its eyes on the Gujarat coast, where the ports would enable them to export to Africa and the Middle East. The sea route from China to the Middle East and Africa is too long. But, if Chinese goods containers could come overland to ports on India’s west coast, the cost and time would be greatly reduced. Chinese state-owned port company, Guangzhou Port, invested in Adani-owned Mundra port in 2018 and shared technical knowledge and expertise.
China, possibly, could have become annoyed since India opposed its flagship One Belt One Road (OBOR)-initiative to cover 70 countries as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. OBOR seeks to expand the Kashgar corridor all the way to Aksai Chin and Tibet. The Chinese have carried out rapid industrialisation and mining in these two regions and are now looking to connect it to the CPEC corridor.
With the USA supporting India’s opposition to OBOR, China seemed to start bristling with anger. India’s joint military exercises with the US military and the decision to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, known as QUAD, along with the US, Australia and Japan have caused further worries to China.
To make matters worse, India has decided to stay away from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) amidst fears that cheaper Chinese goods would destroy the domestic industry. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), with leanings toward the BJP, has been leading the campaign to boycott Chinese goods.
In such a complex situation the RSS chief slams China at a programme organised by the RSS on 30 November, charging it with ‘embracing expansionist ideals’ of its past emperors. “China has now risen. This is what it wants now. MS Golwalkar (the second RSS chief) said in 1960s China would come back to its basic nature. It would have little of Confucius and more of expansionism. And that’s what we are seeing today. China has become a big economic power and it wants to expand its influence,” Bhagwat said.
The silence of Bhagwat all this while when Modi was cozying up to Xi was perhaps because he was biding his time before he could take up the deviation from the teachings of Golwalkar on the Chinese design.
Most important in Mohan Bhagwat’s speech is the recognition by the RSS of the shifting of goal posts. It is no more Moslems and that toothless Pakistan that ought to perturb Indian thinking. The organisation seems to have realised that the real enemy in terms of military and economic might against India will be China. This may be good for India.