China finds itself in a bind for its tacit support to Russia in its war against Ukraine. As the conflict protracts and shows no sign of an immediate end to it, China has begun its shuttle diplomacy for the resolution of the war that has entered its third year. But, Ukraine and its Western allies are circumspect about its real intent. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, 2022, China has been trying to maintain a balancing act. It has not yet condemned Moscow’s invasion. But the situation is fast becoming precarious as the continuing war is hurting global economy and food safety as much as hitting China’s global interests.
This has prompted Li Hui, Chinese government’s special representative on Eurasia affairs, to make a hurricane tour of Russia, European Union headquarters in Brussels, Poland, Ukraine, Germany and France to demonstrate China’s willingness to end the war. This is the second time within a year that Li would be making such a trip to the region. The focus of Li’s shuttle diplomacy is on paving the way for ending the conflict and starting peace talks. The endeavour is timely and significant, as the crisis has caused global damage and is very likely to escalate as per indications. The prolonged conflict has already brought multiple impasses and challenges for Russia and Ukraine and other countries regarding military, politics, energy and food prices. The crisis has severely undermined global security which has become a major concern for many countries, especially those in Europe.
China is keen on building consensus on a political resolution for the Ukraine crisis. However, despite its assertions of neutrality, doubts persist among some parties regarding China’s impartiality. Ukraine itself has raised concerns about a potential pro-Russian bias due to China’s “no-limits” friendship with Russia. Efforts by China to bridge differences with Europe on its role in the conflict were met with continued skepticism, with certain quarters viewing China’s position as aligning with Russia’s interests.
On the surface, China has emerged as one of the principal beneficiaries of the war. Its purchase of discounted Russian energy has provided the Kremlin with a vital economic lifeline amid Western sanctions. Moreover, the depletion of United States and NATO weapons stockpiles has led some to argue that an extended war could give China’s military a strategic advantage over rivals who are burning through their arsenals in their efforts to support Ukraine. Yet, the European military buildup, spurred by the ongoing war, could pose a significant challenge to any Chinese military ambitions. Such a prospect may not be in Beijing’s best interest which is why, China watchers say, there are growing signs that Beijing may be getting cold feet about its deepening entanglement. Li Hui’s visits are being seen from this perspective.
It appears China either miscalculated the outcome of Russia’s war with Ukraine or its expectations for a swift Russian victory were misplaced. Both China and Russia seem to have failed to anticipate Ukraine’s fierce resistance and the West’s resolve to arm and support Kyiv. Far from the display of overwhelming force that could have emboldened China’s ambitions towards Taiwan, the war has revealed Russia is not as formidable as it appeared to be since its military capabilities have proved to be no match for Ukraine’s defensive commitment.
Economic factors are also weakening China’s position. Though benefitting from Russian energy exports, Beijing has seen its global trade interests disrupted by sanctions, supply chain shocks, threats to shipping routes, and instability in key markets. Ukraine’s far-reaching attacks on Russia’s infrastructure and nuclear sabre-rattling only amplify these risks. Secondary sanctions on Chinese firms accused of undermining Russia sanctions will likely expand, while transits through European ports and airports may face greater inspection. Such ‘long-arm’ tactics by the West look like the shape of things to come should Beijing move overtly against Taiwan.
Recent developments point to China recalculating its stance on Ukraine. Beijing’s continued role as the top buyer of Ukrainian grain under the grain deal even in the post war situation underscores its pragmatic trade interests.
These realities, it appears, are starting to shape China’s rhetoric and actions. Li Hui’s diplomatic tour has amplified Beijing’s calls for a ceasefire and negotiations. This is an implicit acknowledgement that the war is not moving in the direction that both Russia and China had calculated. On the contrary, it is not serving China’s interests. Therein lies the hope for resolution of the conflict sooner than expected.