The current crop of top BJP leadership, it seems, hasn’t learnt or, even worse, refuses to learn any lesson from the egregious mistake of its senior leaders when they made the cruel joke of “India Shining” campaign in 2004 to cover AB Vajpayee-government’s failure. Many may not agree with the word ‘failure’ but eventually, in any democracy, success or failure can only be measured through the ballot box. The result at that time was that the BJP was voted out of power at the Centre. Similar dishonesty is being dished out once again as the present government observed its seventh anniversary May 30. The Prime Minister claimed the country is “progressing, following the path of inclusive development” encapsulated in its slogan of “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Viswas”. Union Home Minister Amit Shah went a few steps further to boast of “unprecedented achievements” in fields of security, public welfare and reforms.
All this when the country is witnessing fuel price hikes virtually daily and the news that filtered in today is of the Indian economy contracting by 7.3% in FY 2020-21.
Blowing one’s own trumpet is a normal human trait and it applies even more to politicians and governments. Public memory is proverbially short and people in general tend to be swayed by a blitzkrieg of government propaganda. But, there is a point up to which even the gullible public can be manipulated. The Vajpayee government was shown the door for crossing that limit.
The current dispensation at the Centre appears to be deluding itself about the efficacy of such propaganda relying on the unprecedented power and reach of the social media platforms to send across narratives about progress made under its rule. It has done so time and again, be it through propaganda over demonetization, implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST), the manipulated Balakot surgical strike (was made apparent from disclosures of WhatsApp messages between the head of a pro-government television channel and his acolyte) or its failure to checkmate China in Ladakh.
This is why it is difficult to digest when it congratulates itself on its performance on its seventh year, when the country’s progress has nosedived taking the nation back to a level of economy that prevailed four decades ago. That too in a year when COVID-19 pandemic has shattered the lives of millions and torpedoed the country’s economy with the government acting like a helpless, passive spectator. A close examination of the work of this government will reveal the unvarnished reality shorn of false official bravado.
In 2014, then Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi took the country by storm capturing the coveted Delhi throne to become PM on the promise of bringing about ‘Vikas’ (economic growth) and ‘Achhe Din’ (better days). India’s economy then appeared to have lost its way in terms of GDP growth even as retail inflation was soaring and private investments were getting stalled. Yet hopes were raised that a new day would dawn with a new set up in Delhi. That did not seem to have borne fruit. In 2019 the economy worsened further, yet BJP repeated the success by returning with an even bigger mandate. That this government’s performance was even more miserable can be gauged with the usual economic yardsticks of GDP, unemployment rate, inflation rate, fiscal deficit of the government – an index of the health of government finances, savings and investment rates in the economy, the domestic currency’s relative value against the US dollar, the balance of payment and the level of poverty and inequality.
The GDP growth rate for the past five years reveals the government’s poor performance in managing the economy. After the decline in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, the Indian economy started its recovery in 2013, i.e. over a year before the Modi-government took charge. But, the economy decelerated since the third quarter (October to December) of 2016-17. The main reason is the government’s decision to demonetise India’s currency overnight and the poorly-designed and hastily-implemented Good and Services Tax (GST). The GDP growth rate, as per Reserve Bank of India’s Annual Report for FY21, steadily fell from over 8% in FY17 to about 4% in FY20, just before Covid-19 hit. Even before COVID was declared a global pandemic the fundamentals of Indian economy were already weak. In per capita income, India has performed worse than Bangladesh.
India’s unemployment rate, according to government’s own surveys, was at a 45-year high in 2017-18. The total number of employed people between 2012 and 2018 fell by 9 million which was the first such instance in independent India’s history. As against the norm of 2%-3% unemployment rate, India started routinely witnessing unemployment rates close to 6%-7% in the years leading up to Covid-19. The pandemic, of course, made matters far worse.
One easy parameter that the layman can well understand is the exchange rate of the rupee with the US dollar. Here, too, the Modi government’s record does not inspire any confidence. A US dollar was worth `59 when Modi took over as the PM. Seven years later, it is closer to `73. The relative weakness of the rupee reflects the reduced purchasing power of the Indian currency.
Many powerful politicians have parroted the government narrative that the BJP government has changed the lives of millions of farmers with landmark decisions and reforms and also ensured affordable and quality health service to the people in the last seven years. The ongoing farmers’ agitation and groans of millions of people traumatised by the pandemic give lie to such fairy tales.
It is time the Central government acknowledged its shortcomings and acts on rectifying mistakes of the recent past. It is imperative to prepare the nation not only for vaccinating everyone but also to prepare a detailed plan on health care to face future waves as also get the economy going by pumping government money through developmental works in large scale.
There does not seem to be a wide open window as far as time is concerned in these issues.