Dhanada K Mishra
In a very well known social science experiment, a sample of randomly selected people is asked whether they understand how a bicycle worked. As would be expected, an overwhelming majority would say they do! Yet on asking to draw a rough sketch of the bicycle, most would get it remarkably wrong! This phenomenon seems to apply equally well to most subjects and most groups of people irrespective of their background, education, social status, race, gender or nationality.
The well-known theory in social psychology known as the Dunning-Kruger effect was first introduced in 1999. It relates to the phenomenon of the human tendency to overestimate our own knowledge or competence. It is known as a cognitive bias which is generally corrected as we learn more about the subject over a period of time. This theory was further generalised into what was later termed as the Illusion of Explanatory Depth or IoED by psychologists Leonid Rozenblit and Frank Keil in 2002. As per this theory, most people feel they understand the world with far greater detail, coherence, and depth than they really do. This to me goes a long way in explaining the predicament we face with the avalanche of information we encounter all the time which makes us feel as if we know a lot of things in great depth contrary to reality.
Such a cognitive bias leads to most of the uninformed, fruitless, and rancorous debates online on most subjects. The sooner more of us realise the truth about the shallowness of our knowledge on most subjects, it would help make us humbler and more open to ideas of others. It would help us better appreciate the opinion of those on subjects they have spent a considerable amount of time and effort in mastering.
One of the fastest-growing challenges today is carrying out a civilized discussion on any topic – particularly on social media without degenerating into partisan bickering. The world is more divided than ever before with leaders like Trump, Bolsonaro, Duterte, Putin, Johnson, Modi, and the like both helping to create and also taking advantage of those divisions for partisan and populist political interests. Such tendencies are clearly visible most prominently on social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook. What makes it really dangerous is the avalanche of fake information mostly in the guise of legitimate news. Such misinformation can range from innocent pranks to deliberate campaigns that are politically motivated with nefarious ends in mind. The emergence of paid troll armies has made it easy for political parties and other entities to control the narrative however incredible it might be. Unfortunately, the impact of these trends is no longer limited to online conversations only but frequently spills over to real-life with deadly consequences. Whether in the case of recent communal riots in Delhi or the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, the threat of fake news and misinformation campaigns has proven to be most lethal. Even national elections as important as that for the President of USA have become subject to manipulation by third party actors with a vested interest. Left unchecked this trend will have catastrophic results for mankind.
In this context, the traditional sources of authentic information have come under deadly fire as they are the biggest threat to those who stand to benefit from the spread of fake news. Ironically, powerful persons like Donald Trump take a lead in destroying the reputation of all mainstream media that are traditionally respected for their long-standing credibility by labelling them as fake news, particularly as they try to hold him accountable for his actions. Such examples can be also found closer home in India where intellectuals and media not towing the official line on any issue and asking uncomfortable questions are labelled anti-national. A recent report suggested that more than 50 journalists have been booked by Indian police on one pretext or the other just in the past few months since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak. Prime Minister Modi has not helped the cause by denigrating institutions and intellectuals of proven caliber and reputation. Allowing the system to prosecute important voices that stand up for human rights, for the environment, for probity in public life has had a chilling effect on civil society. Numerous non-profits have been harassed to the extent of being forced to close operations often in the name of national interest which often turns out to be corporate interest. The war between truth and falsehood seems to be razing and the outcome will have a decisive impact on our future as a society.
The cognitive bias in most of us to have an overestimation of our ability to understand issues and thereby underestimate voices of sanity and reason, goaded by populist leaders is turning out to be a deadly cocktail. Understanding this conundrum, explaining complex ideas in simple terms without loss of their essence will be a crucial skill in the future in order for the wise to be heard over the cacophony of the ongoing discourse. One of the redeeming features of a genuine expert or an intellectual (as opposed to one who pretends to be one) with a certain depth of expertise in any field is the evident humility. As the Sanskrit saying goes – ‘Namranti Falina Vrikhsya’, which means ‘trees full of fruits tend to bend down’. Such humility comes with the knowledge that ‘the more you know, the more you realise how much more there is to know’! It’s an easy and almost certain measure of the value of a person’s opinion especially in his/her area of expertise.
Long before the ideas of Dunning-Kruger or IoED were introduced, the famed philosopher Bertrand Russell had captured the essence almost perfectly in simple words as follows: “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”
And there lies the source of most of our current troubles!
The author is an academician currently visiting Hong Kong University of Science and Technology as a Research Scholar. He can be reached by email at dhanadam@gmail.com