With several restrictions getting eased from Monday, the worst of the lockdown for supposedly halting progress of the COVID-19 in India is hopefully over. Figures give hope to the nation, however falsified they may be. With just 505 deaths linked to the pandemic in the past two months, and the total infections remaining at less than 16,000, COVID-19 could not turn the nation upside down, unlike what developed nations faced in recent weeks of massive spread of the virus and fatalities in the thousands. The mortality rate for COVID-19 in India stood at a little over three per cent of the total infected people. The recovery rate is improving, while pockets in Mumbai and elsewhere remained as hotspots. The problem of testing remains and that may be the sole reason for India ticking off lower figures. While countries like Spain, Italy or the USA can be expected to truthfully project real figures, India does not have honesty of government data as a hallmark.
It will take a long time to resume normal activities in various sectors, though selective relaxations will come into force from Monday 20 April in select areas across states. With over 1,300 infections reported on Sunday, the overall scenario remains in the grey zone, and alert is called for in every walk of life. A good enough reason why trains will not take passengers for some more time, flights will remain grounded and buses should keep off the roads. Private vehicles would start moving, but with valid reasons and mostly within respective districts. While easing the restrictions, the Centre has emphasized that there shall be no inter-state travel for migrants and they must register for local jobs. The positives are there for all to see, and the relaxations should continue in a calibrated manner. Yet the designs of Chief Ministers like Arvind Kejriwal of Delhi, if that be any indication of all those occupying seats of authority, is not to let go the absolute power being enjoyed by governments.
The national economy is down in the dumps. Worst fears aired so far have it that the scenario could slump to a zero GDP growth level in the aftermath of the COVID-19 hit. China is set for a minus six per cent growth, down quickly from the six-plus GDP rate five months ago. China can afford it, though, as its overheated economy was seeking a cool-down for some time now. COVID-19 gave it this opportunity. After the invasion of COVID-19, nations across continents, principally the ones in Europe, are wary of Chinese attempts for acquisition of firms that have fallen “sick” in the COVID impact. India, mindful of what is feared from the Chinese side, has changed its FDI rules, as did some European nations this past week, to ensure that the Indian entities do not go into Chinese hands. Maybe the advice of Rahul Gandhi regarding controlling of external investments, especially after he mentioned the huge investment by the a China Bank in HDFC, could have spurred the Union Government to act. The new rules stipulate that the Union Commerce Ministry’s clearance is a must for any such FDI forays from China and other neighbouring nations.
The US and entire Europe are fearing for the worst in economy terms too. No prediction could be on the dot for the reason that no one is sure of the impact of the unprecedented halt to global economic activities. However, according to leading economists commenting on the high unemployment benefit applications and the shutting down of industries, an immense recession is on the anvil. Chances are also that with heavy infusion of reserve funds, the global economy might again have a head-start. Where and who has that kind of funds is a completely different question. Stimulus packages are what governments are coming up with. India, on its part too, made some announcements of this kind, but they fall short of any major gains to the market. The energy kept in reserve for over the past several weeks might be unleashed with a negative vehemence if proper care is not taken. How market forces will respond to the emerging situation will need to be watched.
While the Indian government has come up with an unprecedented lockdown on the nation, it has taken no decisive step about the Exit plans yet. Several loopholes remain unplugged in the context of the initial lethargy that the Centre has shown in squarely facing the evolving situation. The US and several other badly hit nations have a grouse against China that it hid the extent of danger that COVID-19 posed, which led to the spread of the virus to over 180 nations in a matter of a few weeks since December. President Trump is even suspecting foul play on the part of China to send in the virus to make life hell for the US. China, for most part, is silence personified and is busy making money out of the new business opportunities Covid-19 pandemic has opened before it. Several conspiracy theories are floating around. The whole truth about COVID 19 and the why, how, where and by whom questions may or may not get exposed soon.