New Delhi: The 28th round of the annual UN climate talks to be held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is anticipated to involve intense negotiations on compensation from rich countries to developing ones for climate impacts, fossil fuel usage, methane emissions, and financial aid for reducing planet-warming emissions and adapting to climate change.
The urgency to take robust action to combat the climate crisis is increasing every moment. September marked the hottest recorded month ever, with global average temperatures reaching 1.8 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels.
Across the globe, deadly heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, storms and floods are costing lives and livelihoods. Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions — almost 90 per cent of which come from fossil fuels — rose to record highs in 2021-2022.
Here is an overview of the issues expected to dominate the negotiations at COP28, scheduled to be held at the Dubai Expo City from November 30 to December 12.
Loss and damage
This COP will determine how to direct support to developing and poor countries that bear the brunt of the climate crisis, despite contributing little to it.
At COP27 in Egypt’s Sharm El-Sheikh last year, rich countries agreed to establish a loss-and-damage fund. However, the decisions on funding allocation, beneficiaries and administration were referred to a committee.
Differences between countries necessitated an additional meeting to resolve these issues.
A draft agreement arrived at earlier this month will be up for a final approval at the climate talks. However, dissatisfaction from both rich and developing nations could block the approval or require additional negotiations.
Climate finance
Finance for energy transition, mitigation and adaptation in developing countries will take centrestage at the Dubai climate talks.
“Ambition without finance is empty ambition,” Avinash Persuad, a special envoy to Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley on climate finance, summed it up in a sentence.
According to a recent report by the United Nations, up to $387 billion will be needed annually if developing countries are to adapt to climate-driven changes.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said last week that the developed countries have miserably fallen short in raising $100 billion per year — a promise they made in 2009 — towards the climate mitigation and adaptation needs of the developing countries in 2021, a year past the 2020 deadline.
COP28 will also hold discussions on a new climate finance goal for the post-2025 period, which countries said should be in trillions and not billions.
Fossil fuels
There is a mounting global push for a phaseout of fossil fuels — coal, oil and gas — which are the largest contributor to global climate change, accounting for more than 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions.
There has been resistance from fossil fuel-producing nations and companies who argue that they should be allowed to keep extracting oil and gas as long as they capture carbon emissions using sophisticated technologies, which experts say are “expensive and unproven”.
Findings from “The 2023 Production Gap Report” reveal that governments still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels than is consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the guardrail to avoid worsening of climate impacts.
The Emissions Gap Report 2023, released November 20, warns that the world is heading for a nearly 3 degrees Celsius of warming if governments do not agree to and implement more ambitious targets.
According to the Energy Policy Tracker website, public financial support for fossil fuels, in the form of subsidies, investments by State-owned enterprises and lending from public financial institutions, exceeded $1.7 trillion globally in 2022 — a record high.
In Glasgow in 2021, COP26 called on countries to “phase down” unabated coal power. Taking this forward, around 80 developed and developing countries supported India’s call to phase out all fossil fuels, not just coal, at COP27 in 2022.
The momentum behind the call to phase out all fossil fuels has only grown since COP27 and COP 28 presents an opportunity for governments to correct course.
Tripling of renewable energy capacity
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the world must triple its renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency by 2030 to drive down demand for fossil fuels and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
Led by the US, the European Union (EU) and the UAE, more than 60 countries now back a commitment to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency.
While the G20 nations have supported tripling RE capacity, it cannot be taken for granted till the remaining nations also buy into it at COP28.
“We might be taking the global target of tripling of renewables for granted because the G20 bloc adopted it. But it will only become a global goal if all the countries agree to it at COP28,” said Vaibhav Chaturvedi, a research fellow at the New Delhi-based independent climate thinktank Council on Energy Environment and Water (CEEW).
The capabilities of many countries are so low that it is not so easy for them to understand the implications of any such thing, he said.
PTI