This round seems to have gone in favor of Nitish Kumar in Bihar. The Kurmi leader is known for his ability to change sides as and when winds of impending change blows across the Northern Indian plains. His political outfit, the Janata Dal United (JDU) has never been able to muster single majority in the Bihar Assembly but yet Nitish has the record of being the Chief Minister of one of the largest Indian states for seven times. In his new avatar Nitish has left the companionship of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP and decided to re-embrace Lalu Prasad’s son Tejasvi’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) for his future political activities. Those who are aware of Nitish know very well that the man is extremely ambitious and does not have any qualms about ditching or befriending any political outfit for his own interest. This event of 9 August 2022, however, bears greater importance because of the timing. Nitish would certainly be calculating that Narendra Modi’s popularity has been dented due to many instances of mismanagement in the fields of economy and defence and also the damage caused to the social fabric of the country which has greatly impacted the common citizen. India is a country which is extremely sensitive to issues such as price rise of fuel and essential commodities. Modi has utterly failed in this respect. It is also known that the average citizen does not revolt nor speak out against people in power but when the time comes for the voter to press the button of his choice, the anger is poured forth. Nitish probably has felt that the moment is now or never for him to pitch for the post of Chief Executive.
The nation has been intrigued by the failure of all non BJP parties’ inability to put up one single face as an alternative to Modi. Meanwhile, Indians in private and public conversations have been asserting that Narendra Modi will return to power simply because there is no alternative leadership that will be acceptable to most. This itself is an acceptance that the mind of most Indians is looking for an alternative. Nitish probably wants to present himself as the most acceptable alternative. His advantage of being a squeaky clean politician with no corruption allegations makes him immune to Modi’s most powerful weapons – the Enforcement Directorate and the Central Bureau of Investigations. It is said the darkest of nights foretells the brightest of dawns. In Indian political scenario of today, the misuse or abuse of central investigating agencies could bring about a bunch of leaders who have nothing to fear in their past. If they cannot be cornered with threats of money laundering cases or embezzlement of funds, they cannot be cowered down to kneel before the BJP leadership. On the other hand, people may view all those who support the BJP in the coming days are those who need protection from the wrath of the central agencies for their past misdeeds. This could be a welcome development in Indian politics where the difference would be made sharp and clear between the clean and the corrupt.
Nitish, if he succeeds in forming the next government in Bihar with the help of the RJD, might appoint Tejasvi as his Deputy Chief Minister. In such a scenario, Nitish would be free to travel and confabulate with anti-BJP forces across the country to bring about a much sought after unity that the Congress primarily has been instrumental in damaging.
The events of 9 August at Patna could be important in the run up to the elections slated for 2024. The decision of Nitish also indicates that the fear of opposing Modi is waning. How the people of India react to this change will be measured in 2024.