The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its latest report released April 4, has made one departure from what it has so long been doing for the past few years. Instead of predicting doom for reckless plunder of nature and emission of greenhouse gases by mainly developed countries, the report this time has drawn the world’s attention to how governments and people can effectively tackle the issue. Of course, the dire predictions are there. For example, continued heating of the planet, the report says, means that this year will probably be one of this century’s coolest. Despite the climate pledges by governments, global heating would be 1.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels, making a mockery of the target promised in the 2015 Paris agreement. Greenhouse gas emissions are rising to the extent that during the past decade, on average, annually they were at their highest levels in human history. The coming decades are going to see temperature rise of more than 3 degree C. This would make large parts of the world too hot to work in. Severe crop failures will become common, while disappearing ice caps would submerge major cities. Governments have hitherto been far too hesitant to confront vested interests and are protecting investments in fossil fuels.
This cannot go on, says António Guterres, the UN Secretary General. He painted a gloomy future remarking the world “is on a fast track to climate disaster.” Nations and corporations, he bluntly said, are not just turning a blind eye to a planetary disaster but adding fuel to fire. There is very little time left to implement policies that promote greener lifestyle choices and cheaper renewable solutions that would generate jobs, energy security and price stability, he warned.
However, UN scientists – over 700 spread across the globe working for the IPCC – have unveiled a plan that they believe would help people avoid the worst impacts of rising temperatures. The report virtually calls for a revolution in how we produce energy and power our world. In order to stave off global warming at the most dangerous level, carbon emissions can be allowed to peak within three years from now and then they must fall by 43 per cent by the end of this decade. That is not enough. Technology to pull CO2 from the air will still be needed to keep temperatures down.
The researchers have prescribed several key ideas that must be adhered to for keeping the world safe. The first of these is that the use of fossil fuels will have to stop and alternative, sustainable energy sources such as solar and wind power generation are to be tapped. To achieve 1.5 degree C, the world must reduce annual carbon emissions by about 50 per cent by 2030 and completely stop them by 2050. Methane emissions have to be reduced by a third by 2030 and almost half by 2050. This will need deep cuts in fossil fuel use. Decarbonisation of road transport, industry, mining and manufacturing powered by renewable sources has to be ensured. UN’s scientists argue that energy efficiency and conservation are central to achieving a greener and safer future.
Much of the carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere was released by rich countries that burned coal, oil and gas to industrialise more than a century ago. The IPCC report says about 40 per cent of emissions since then came from Europe and North America. Only about 12 per cent can be attributed to East Asia, including China. It is in the wealthiest 10 per cent of households, which contribute between a third and 45 per cent of climate-changing fumes, where change will have to be effected fastest. There is an imperative need for better crop management and faster use of solar and wind energy. An interesting finding in this respect is that diets high in plant protein and low in meat and dairy are responsible for lower greenhouse gas emissions. It is heartening, the report says, that such diets are increasingly becoming popular.
The pandemic offered an opportunity to shift from fossil fuels, but it has been missed by most governments. The UN body also welcomed the significant decrease in the cost of renewable energy sources since 2010, by as much as 85 per cent for solar and wind energy, and batteries.
One of the big differences between this report and the previous releases is the emphasis on ideas of reducing people’s demand for energy in the areas of shelter, mobility and nutrition. This covers wide areas, including low carbon diets, food waste, how we build our cities, and how people are encouraged to use more carbon friendly transports. Electric cars can make a big difference to emissions from transport but need investment for the technology. The IPCC believes changes in these areas could limit emissions from end-use sectors by 40-70 per cent by 2050, while improving well-being.
That is, indeed, a highly ambitious target, but the report suggests it is doable if proper incentives and nudges are given by governments. Answering an often asked question about availability of money for tackling climate change, the IPCC report says there is far too much money still flowing towards fossil fuels and not to clean energy climate solutions. If fossil fuel subsidies from governments were removed, this would reduce emissions by up to 10 per cent by 2030, according to Greenpeace.
These are sensible recommendations. As the IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee has emphasised we are at a crossroads and the decisions we make now can secure a liveable future.