New Delhi: Safe haven assets, especially gold, and silver have seen a fantastic rally since the start of this year, posting 10 per cent year-to-date (YTD) gains, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report.
It probably is the year of safe havens, as along with global growth slowdown, and geo-political uncertainties, there are also expectations regarding slower interest rate hikes which really is a positive scenario for gold prices, the report said.
Demand and supply factors historically have not directly made a big impact on gold prices, especially in a scenario where there are more overpowering uncertainties present in the market.
Gold prices have posted a sharp rally over the last couple of months, hence some ease-off could be warranted.
Gold’s demand seldom disappoints the market, however, things are a little different on the domestic front this time around due to some slowdown in the physical market, primarily amidst recent changes in customs duty to 15 per cent (including cess) for gold last year and for silver this year.
India in 2021 imported 1,050 tonnes gold, in 2022 it imported 705 tonnes of gold, on other hand, silver import number surprised everyone in 2022, which were to the tune of 9,500 tonnes.
Amidst higher prices, there is some resilience in the physical market with respect to gold buying. On the domestic front, gold ETF has witnessed good traction with the Total AUM of major fund houses going above Rs 17,000 crore.
Also giving a boost to the overall demand is the Central Bank gold buying spree which is rising with a consistent pace, since the last 10 years, major central banker have been net buyers.
According to WGC, the current scale of central bank buying is massive — an annualised rate of 1,724 tonnes vs an average of 512 tonnes over the past decade, the report said.
The triggers which are supporting the market are geo-political tensions in Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan.
Russian-Ukraine concerns set a positive tone for safe haven assets, and to top up, Finland was granted admission to NATO, which doubled their borders and increased the threat for Russia increasing uncertainties.
One more uncertainty that “probably” was short-lived is the US banking concerns, wherein SVB and Credit Suisse led fiasco created panic in the market and increased gold and silver’s safe-haven appeal, the report said.