New Delhi: The government’s total wheat procurement may significantly decline to 27 million tonnes in the current 2022-23 rabi marketing year amid aggressive buying by private players for export and slight fall in the domestic production, according to official sources.
However, the expected fall in domestic output and the government’s wheat buying will not impact grain requirement under the Public Distribution System (PDS), Other Welfare Schemes (OWS) and Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKAY) due to the surplus buffer stock, the sources said.
This may also not impact domestic retail prices which have largely remained stable despite global inflation due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis, the sources added.
Further, the sources said the country’s wheat production is estimated to be 105 million tonnes in the 2021-22 crop year (July-June), lower than the previous year’s actual production of 109.59 million tonnes.
Wheat harvesting is underway in the current rabi marketing year which runs from April to March but the bulk of procurement ends by June.
State-owned Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state agencies undertake procurement at a minimum support price to meet the requirement under the Public Distribution System (PDS) and other welfare schemes.
The Centre has set a target to procure a record 44.4 million tonnes of wheat in the 2022-23 marketing year as against an all-time high 43.34 million tonnes in the previous marketing year.
Looking at the way private traders are buying wheat from farmers for the export purpose, the government agencies are estimated to buy about 27 million tonnes in this rabi marketing year, the sources said.
Till April 20 of the ongoing rabi marketing year, the government agencies have been able to buy 10.9 million tonnes of wheat, much lower than the year-ago period.
It’s a good sign that farmers are getting a better rate for wheat from private traders and therefore not selling the produce to government agencies, they added.
Stating that there is enough wheat stock with the government to meet the grain requirement under the welfare schemes, the official sources said FCI would still have a wheat stock of 10 million tonnes even after meeting the requirement of 36 million tonnes for PDS, OWS and PMGKAY this year.
On wheat export, the sources said private traders are buying wheat from farmers in a big way amid rise in global demand for Indian wheat in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
There is a good opportunity for export of wheat till June before monsoon and harvest in Russia and Ukraine begins. Already, private traders have contracted for export of 3 million tonnes of wheat for delivery in the first quarter of this fiscal, the sources said.
Out of the total, 1 million tonne of wheat will be exported in April, the sources said and added that an increase in wheat exports will boost the income of farmers.
The country is estimated to have exported over 7 million tonnes in 2021-22 fiscal.
The sources also said that wheat production is expected to be 105 million tonnes in 2021-22 crop year (July-June), lower than a record 111.32 million tonnes estimated by the agriculture ministry in its second advance estimate for the same year.
PTI