New Delhi: Limited available data suggests that India’s growth weakened in June’23, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report.
Manufacturing PMI fell to 57.8 in June’23 from 58.7 in May’23, but it still remained in expansionary territory, the report said.
Additionally, a contraction in CV sales, weak freight traffic growth, deceleration in toll collections and PV sales growth, and falling water reservoir levels would have adversely impacted economic activity in June’23, it added.
Overall, after better-than-expected growth in 4QFY23, our calculations suggest that EAI grew decently in May’23 as well. However, it is clear that economic data has weakened in June’23. Accordingly, real GVA/GDP growth could be 6-7 per cent YoY in 1QFY24, lower than the RBI’s projection of 8 per cent , the report said.
Preliminary estimates indicate that India’s economic activity index (EAI) for GVA clocked 10 per cent YoY growth in May’23 vs. 9.3 per cent /18.3 per cent in April’23/May’22. Higher growth was led by robust services sector growth, which posted double-digit growth for the fifth consecutive month in May’23 (10.7 per cent in May’23 vs. 10.9 per cent in April’23). Additionally, the industrial sector also grew at double digits for the second consecutive month, with some improvement in the farm sector as well.
An important trend in the market is the surge in retail investor participation as indicated by the sharp increase in new demat accounts at 2.36 million opened in June, says V. K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
New retail investors jumping on to the market band wagon normally happens at the peak of a rally. This is a sign for caution, he said.
The FPI liquidity driven rally is showing signs of losing steam. Some of the leading indicators like credit growth for Q1 from banking majors like the merged entity HDFC Bank indicate a possible slowdown in the economy, he said.
Two-wheeler sales in June indicate that demand continues to be a problem in rural areas. In brief, the macroeconomic scenario, though good, is not so bullish as to warrant the continuation of the rally, which has already run a bit ahead of fundamentals, he added.
He cautioned that investors should not chase low-grade small-cap stocks at this juncture and stay invested in high quality large-caps. Wait for the Q1 results for direction.
Automobiles sector’s 1QFY24 was a mixed bag from the demand perspective, with signs of volume growth moderation in some segments, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report.
Demand largely remained intact for domestic 2Ws and PVs, whereas volumes declined for CVs (due to pre-buy in 4QFY23) and tractors (high inventory and Navratras in March’23). Two wheeler exports remained weak.