Bimal Prasad Mohapatra
Four nations’ Quadrilateral Security Dialogue shortly called QUAD has seen many up and down between its inception post-devastating 2004 Tsunami and its first Summit level meeting amidst rampaging run of Covid19 – through virtual mode – held March 12, 2021. The Summit meeting is significant as the event held within two months of the US President Joe Biden taking oath of office. The event followed two ministerial level meetings among member countries’ Foreign Ministers in quick successions.
“We’re united by our democratic values and our commitment to a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific. Our agenda, covering area like vaccines, climate change, and emerging technologies make the Quad a force for global good. We will work together, closer than ever before on advancing our shared values and promoting a secure, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” said PM Narendra Modi in the Summit meeting, and later expressing satisfaction, he furthered, “The quadrilateral framework will be an important pillar of stability in the region.” Thus, he sounded very optimistic.
Australian PM Scott Morrison, while laying out the agenda of the QUAD, said, “We join together as leaders of nations to welcome what I think will be a new dawn in the Indo-Pacific through our gathering.” While Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga said, “With the four countries working together, I wish to firmly advance our cooperation to realise a free and open Indo-Pacific, and to make a tangible contribution to the peace, stability, and prosperity of the region, including overcoming Covid19.” “And we’re renewing our commitment to ensure that our region is governed by international law, committed to upholding universal values and free from coercion. We’ve got a big agenda ahead of us,” said President Joe Biden, the prime-mover of Summit meeting.
The Summit’s joint statement under the title ‘The Spirit of the Quad’, read, “We will join forces to expand safe, affordable, and effective vaccine production and equitable access to speed economic recovery and benefit global health.” Means the major deliverable at the Summit was the vaccine initiative under which vaccines against Covid-19 would be developed in the US, manufactured in India, financed by Japan and US, and supported by Australia.
But, many QUAD observers do not agree fully as they believe that the QUAD is primarily a grouping of democratic countries to contain Communist China during post-Tsunami in 2004 and now during recent Chinese belligerence amidst the run of dreaded pandemic – allegedly developed in China – in the region threatening regional peace. Apart from the above, Russian leadership expressed concern making it clear that ‘the QUAD is China-centric’. And in the meantime, Russia was found cozying with China though they have unsettled border in Russia’s eastern region and fought bloody war in 1969, and both are struggling diplomatically for influence in resource rich Central Asia countries, which were once part of USSR.
But, all the hope of ‘Finally, Quad, if not Asian-NATO, has come up age’ has been dashed when Indian PM announced to hold 2+2 ministerial meeting between Foreign and Defence Ministers of India and Russia after a telephonic talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the last week of April 2021.
Post-first QUAD Summit meeting, have the four incidents that took place in quick succession forced PM Modi to go for second thought while distancing from Russia in favour of QUAD which is virtually led by the super-power US? Are they (1) downgrading India’s ranking in US government funded influential Freedom House Report-2021, (2) US Navy’s 7th April press release saying its 7th Fleet’s warships and guided missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones have asserted navigational rights and freedoms around 130 nautical miles west of Lakshadweep that India considers its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), (3) blocking raw materials for Covid pandemic vaccines invoking war time laws, and (4) the US media onslaughts on Indian government’s pandemic management.
In view of the above, to assume that the US could remain a dependable ally of India – particularly so long as Biden-Harris combined is in the US’s helms of the affairs- during the crisis is foolhardy. So, why should India lose Russia, which has been a dependably military ally during crisis and arms suppliers for long six decades, in favour of QUAD?
The writer is a Research Fellow in DRaS. Views are individual.