The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is not an isolated event in the Middle East, but part of a vast realignment of forces in the region. The new changed scenario gives rise to the possibility of growth of democracy but it is also to be understood that no external force has the capability to alter this extremely complex and violent region.
Some considered an opportunity for change did come in 2003 when Saddam Hussein was ousted from power in Iraq. But, it was a futile exercise. The US invaded Iraq on the pretext of unearthing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). It was incapable of helping install a pluralist, if not democratic, regime in Baghdad that looked after the interests of the Iraqi people.
Instead, the destruction of Saddam’s reign sowed seeds of long-lasting chaos. Twenty-one years on, the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and his inglorious escape, mainly under pressure from Islamists flaunting nationalist credentials, have once again brought the Middle East on the cusp of violent change. The situation is such that it may once again lead to devastating disorder, but all the same, it offers an opportunity to review the region. A new beginning can be made in Syria which had been witnessing massacres comparable to the worst inhumanities known in history since the regime of Hafez al-Assad, father of Bashar, started in early 1970s.
On the other hand, the Israeli army’s attacks in Gaza and Lebanon have triggered widespread criticism for their brutality and crime against humanity. However, these war crimes have considerably weakened the Palestinian militia and Hezbollah, which appear to have been greatly crippled as the axis linking it to Tehran via Syria and Iraq is now cut off. Herein lies a hope for the emergence of a political alternative in the Palestinian camp, the restoration of institutions in Lebanon and the formation of a new political balance in Damascus.
Rosy as this picture may seem, everyone, deep down, knows that the redness of the rose is due to it being dipped in blood. There are signs of other changes taking shape too. The Shi’ite Iranian regime does not look as strong as it did months back and is now seeking common ground with its great Sunni and Wahabi rival Saudi Arabia.
In November, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman referred to Iran as a “sister republic” and advised Israel to respect its territorial integrity. The ruler of Riyadh has also reverted to the kingdom’s traditional position which emphasises normalisation of relations with Israel on condition that a Palestinian state is created. It is to be seen if this gets traction in the Arab world. The cry that is resonating in the Middle East at the moment is the need for realignment, stabilisation and détente. The peoples of the region aspire to achieve these goals after decades of futile attempts but the world is aware that a keg of gunpowder seeking warmth from a fire would certainly be disastrous. The main groups that have benefited most from the recent developments in the region are the Syrian Islamists, their Turkish sponsor and Israel. The three must walk the extra mile for durable peace and development of the region. The new forces ruling Syria need to respect the complex ethnic mosaic in the country, while Turkey should stop the persecution of its Kurdish enemies by respecting its territorial sovereignty. Likewise, Israel should realise it is time to end the carnage in Gaza, the escalation in the West Bank, the bombing campaign against the fallen regime’s military sites in Syria, and by avoiding unnecessarily provocative gestures including attempts to take control of the Syrian Golan buffer zone it occupies. However, any optimism in this regard must be tempered since the past actions of these three players do not inspire much confidence.
Yet, Middle East watchers point to the three protagonists who need to be pragmatic so that a possible roadmap can be chalked out to create a new order for the establishment of some kind of order that has so long eluded the region and probably will continue to do so in the future too if nothing is done at junctures such as prevailing now.