The National Conference-Congress alliance will form the government after winning a comfortable majority in the Jammu and Kashmir elections, while the BJP defied all pollsters and bounced back in Haryana creating history of sorts by retaining power for the third consecutive time. The election results declared 8 October come as a morale booster for the BJP whose confidence was low after failing to secure even the basic 272 seats in the recent Lok Sabha polls. This makes the party to be so jubilant that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been maintaining a low profile since the loss of face in the general elections, celebrated the victory by addressing party workers at the BJP headquarters in an apparent show of return of confidence. But, despite the victory in Haryana, the BJP has suffered a major setback in Jammu and Kashmir after having abrogated Article 370. This was an integral part of the BJP’s original favourite political agenda. But, all its efforts to dismember the state and establish its control over it have met with resounding failure exemplified in the day’s election outcome. The National Conference, known as the largest pro India regional party, has formed an alliance with the Congress and made restoration of J&K’s status that existed before the repeal of Article 370 its main poll plank. That battle cry seems to have yielded handsome dividends in the Valley. The BJP win in the Jammu region was entirely expected.
It was an irony of fate that the Congress had begun celebration in the morning expecting victory in Haryana after early trends showed it was doing well. As the day progressed, it became clear that the BJP was all set to retain power for a historic third term in a row. Despite forecasts of a sweeping victory for the Congress, the BJP was on the way to improving its 2019 performance, when it secured 40 seats in alliance with the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP).
It was over-confidence and infighting that proved the Congress’ undoing in Haryana. Its better performance in the LS polls and the BJP top leadership going on the backfoot since then infused so much false hope and confidence in the Congress that the state leadership decided not to accommodate other Opposition parties including the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The bloated ego of its leadership was so obvious that it eroded people’s faith. The refusal of the state unit to enter into a seat sharing arrangement with the AAP as favoured by Rahul Gandhi eventually split anti-BJP votes. The internal dissension in the Congress also cost it dearly.
On the other hand, the BJP went ahead with its task of consolidating its voter base silently and relentlessly polarising votes between the Jats accounting for about 25 per cent of the state’s population and non-Jats and OBC voters constituting 75 per cent of the people. It was virtually a do or die for the BJP to refurbish the image of the party and its mascot PM Modi after the Lok Sabha polls. It pulled out all stops to win the election holding nearly 50 rallies, many of which addressed by the PM and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, against the Congress’ 75.
It was a much needed victory in Haryana for the BJP that is likely to rejuvenate the party rank and file in the ensuing crucial Assembly elections in Maharashtra. The defeat in Jammu and Kashmir will, however, be the bitterest pill it will have to swallow. Time will tell whether the NC-Congress can achieve its goals in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir where the Lt Governor holds great powers vested in him by the Constitution to put roadblocks to the plans of the ruling alliance.
Results of these two states should convince the BJP top leadership that their ‘One Nation One Vote’ idea might not be all that bright. Any ruling party might have temporary setbacks but it also needs intermittent morale boosters to hold the cadres together. Multiple elections may well be the only method to put healing balm on defeated organizations.