London: As India’s health ministry held urgent talks on the COVID-19 situation Wednesday, different sets of data modelling indicate that China could be facing a massive death toll from a surge in cases after it lifted its stringent zero-COVID policy.
According to a recent report in The Economist, around 1.5 million Chinese could die based on its model that calculates the trajectory of the country’s outbreak under different scenarios based on estimates of the rates at which people become infected, get sick, recover or die – referred to as the SEIR model.
Those figures tally with other recent modelling, including a report in ‘The Lancet’ journal from last week quoting analysis by Airfinity, a UK-based science information and analytics company, which projected that somewhere between 1.3 and 2.1 million people could die from COVID-19 after China re-opens.
“Predicting the number of deaths is tricky. Much will depend on the coverage and timing of the COVID-19 vaccines among the elderly and vulnerable, as well as the availability of antivirals,” The Lancet noted.
“Serological studies from the UK have shown that almost everyone in the nation has antibodies against SARS-CoV-2; equivalent data for China are not publicly available, but levels of natural immunity will certainly be low. The country has registered fewer than 2 million cases of COVID-19 throughout the course of the pandemic,” it said.
According to the journal, Feng Zijian, former deputy director of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, has suggested that 60 per cent of the country’s population could become infected with SARS-CoV-2 – the virus which causes COVID-19 – in the first wave of disease following opening up, which equates to 840 million people.
Airfinity, meanwhile, extrapolated from the experience of Hong Kong with Omicron earlier this year to make projections that ending the zero-COVID strategy would result in 167-279 million cases of the disease.
“China’s zero-COVID strategy also means the population has almost no naturally acquired immunity through previous infection. As a result of these factors, our analysis shows if mainland China sees a similar wave to Hong Kong’s in February, its healthcare system could be pushed to capacity as there could be between 167 and 279 million cases nationwide, which could lead to between 1.3 and 2.1 million deaths,” warns the Airfinity analysis.
Zhengming Chen, professor of epidemiology at the University of Oxford, has questioned the timing of the shift in policy, given that Chinese New Year was around the corner, which will entail a huge amount of travelling and social interaction.
“China has not done enough to prepare for re-opening. They should have been promoting vaccination and preparing the media, the healthcare system, and the general public. I have not seen much of any of this over the past six months,” Chen told ‘The Lancet Respiratory Medicine’.
The country’s zero-COVID policy deployed mass testing and strict quarantine measures, which were revised earlier this month in the wake of anti-government protests.
Several Chinese cities endured lengthy lockdowns, often prompted by a handful of infections and there were indications that people were starting to run out of patience.
The days prior to the announcement by the National Health Commission saw protests in several cities, including one in Shanghai in which the crowd chanted “we don’t want COVID-19 tests, we want freedom”.
Meanwhile, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya on Wednesday reviewed the COVID-19 situation in the India in view of a sudden spurt in cases in some parts of the world, and directed officials to be alert and strengthen surveillance.
“In view of the rising cases of Covid19 in some countries, reviewed the situation with experts and officials today. COVID is not over yet. I have directed all concerned to be alert and strengthen surveillance. We are prepared to manage any situation,” Mandaviya said in a tweet.
PTI