A permacrisis seems to have engulfed the world with no end in sight for conflicts, climate disasters, economic gloom and democratic backsliding as we enter another new year. The war in Ukraine which is soon set to complete two years and the conflict in Gaza which has entered 12 weeks are among the major geopolitical concerns for almost every country. Their ripple effects – high levels of inflation, growing inequality and a cost of living crisis — are being felt across the world. That these concerns are now relevant for India too is visible when we notice the reports of an internal mail sent to all staffers by N. Chandrasekaran, the Chairman of Tata Sons. Chandrasekaran has reportedly written that employees should be aware about geopolitical events and brace for increased volatility and disruption. He, however, is careful to end the note saying there is a silver lining in this because India’s future seems bright. How he concludes this mail is, in itself, an ominous pointer towards the present situation prevailing in this country as perceived by important industry leaders.
Climate change, an existential threat to humanity, may cause more havoc than ever before if trends, especially over the past few months, are any indication. Global temperatures are on the rise year after year, with 2023 being the hottest in recorded history. The only solution, we are told, lies in a transition from our current fossil fuel-based economy to a green energy based one. The shift may take more time but for now there is at least some kind of awakening on the issue.
Two years of pandemic followed by two years of geopolitical tensions have led to widespread economic woes the world over. Inflation still remains above the comfort zone in most economies, hitting the poorest people the most. Wealth inequality has reached levels never seen before, with the richest 1 per cent grabbing nearly two-thirds of the $42 trillion of wealth newly-created since the year 2020. The average billionaire has gained roughly $1.7 million for every $1 of new wealth earned by a person in the bottom 90 per cent. Such disparities between the haves and have-nots often result in social tension. Industrial policy reforms and protectionism, it seems, have returned with vengeance as a result of deglobalisation. This is particularly visible in emerging economies. The US is drawing a large portion of the world’s foreign direct investment and financial flows due to its substantial subsidies and high interest rates, while the Global South is experiencing deficits as a result of growing dollar-denominated import bills for food and other necessities.
Technology in the form of artificial intelligence has taken the world by storm. Disruptions in the form of automation in more and more industries and sectors may lead to more layoffs and livelihood loses. This calls for urgent regulation of AI, something like the European Union has done with its AI Act, the world’s first comprehensive AI law. Such laws should come in other parts of the world so that humanity continues to control technology and not the other way round. The mad rush for digitalization in every sector in countries like India has helped push the economy further away from the poor and enriched the rich much more. While the common man is happy with small conveniences and is incapable of understanding the permanent damages caused by digital systems being implemented, the rich and powerful are gloating over windfall super normal profits due to these very initiatives.
Authoritarian tendencies are developing in most governments with democracy taking a back seat. Governments are employing surveillance tools to snoop on own their own citizens. With more than a third of the world’s population going to the polls in 2024 to elect leaders in more than 70 countries including India, the United States, Taiwan and Russia, the year is important for the future of democracy and the thought of freedom of the individual and human rights that are tied inextricably to it. The current wave of Right-wing populism spreading in many parts of the world remains a major threat for a free thinking liberal global order, and Donald Trump or any other Republican returning to the White House after the November polls will only aggravate that threat. Back home in India, the results to the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections are set to be the most momentous in the nation’s recent history.
This is a time to hope for increased sanity and dispassionate evaluation of the bigger picture of the future by every citizen living across the globe.