New Delhi: India is likely to receive a “better monsoon” than it did in 2017, with the entire country expected to see “normal rainfall” between 96 to 104 per cent from June to September, officials said Wednesday.
In 2017, the country received 97 per cent rainfall, which is considered normal. On Wednesday, the Met updated its prediction cutting down on the error estimate, thereby counting on better monsoon rains.
“Quantitatively, the country is likely to receive 97 per cent rainfall of long period average (LPA) with error estimate of plus-minus four per cent,” IMD Director General KJ Ramesh told media.
“We are expecting better rainfall in 2018 than 2017,” Ramesh added. Projecting scope of better rains, the IMD in its second stage long range forecast Wednesday reduced the error estimate for the rainfall from earlier “plus-minus five per cent” to present “plus-minus four per cent”.
The rainfall is likely to be 100 per cent of LPA over northwest India, 99 per cent of LPA over central India, 95 per cent over southern peninsula and 93 per cent of LPA over northeast India, all with a model error of eight per cent. July is likely to be more rainy with rainfall over the country as a whole expected to be around 101 per cent, while August may see 94 per cent rainfall, the IMD said.
The IMD predictions are based on different technical models, with all suggesting normal rainfall, an official said. According to one such model, the rainfall averaged over the monsoon season is likely to be 102 per cent, with error estimate of plus-minus four per cent.
A figure between 96 and 104 per cent is considered “normal”. While the figure between 104 to 110 per cent is considered “above normal” monsoon. The average seasonal rainfall in India between 1951 to 2000 has been recorded at 89 cm. In 2017, the monsoon season in the country as a whole was 97 per cent of its LPA, with northwest India receiving 95 per cent, central India 106 per cent, southern peninsula 92 per cent and northeast India 89 per cent rainfall.
Stock advisory
Bhubaneswar: Ahead of the onset of the monsoon, the state government Wednesday asked officials of all 30 districts to be prepared for possible flood and stock adequate food grains in remote areas which are prone to flood. The instructions were given by special relief
commissioner BP Sethi.