Seoul: North Korea has not said anything so far about its leader Kim Jong Un who is allegedly unwell. This has renewed worry about who’s next in line to run the nuclear-armed country. North Korea has been ruled by the same family for seven decades.
Speculation about Kim Jong Un’s health
Questions about Kim’s health flared after he skipped an April 15 commemoration of the 108th birthday of his grandfather, North Korea founder Kim Il Sung. It’s North Korea’s most important event. Kim, 36, hadn’t missed it since inheriting power from his father in late 2011.
North Korea’s state media Wednesday published some past comments by Kim. However, it didn’t report any new activities. Rival South Korea also repeated that no unusual developments had been detected in the North.
Out of public eye
Kim has been out of the public eye for extended periods in the past. North Korea’s secretive nature allows few outsiders to assert confidently whether he might be unwell, let alone incapacitated. Still, questions about the North’s political future will grow if he fails to attend upcoming public events.
Kim is the third generation of his family to rule North Korea. A strong personality cult has been built around him, his father and grandfather. The family’s has the mythical ‘Paektu’ bloodline, named after the highest peak on the Korean Peninsula. The name is significant as it gives only direct family members the right to rule the nation.
Candidates in fray to succeed
That makes Kim’s younger sister, senior ruling party official Kim Yo Jong, the most likely candidate to step in. That is if her brother is gravely ill, incapacitated or dies. But some experts say a collective leadership, which could end the family’s dynastic rule, could also be possible.
“Among the North’s power elite, Kim Yo Jong has the highest chance to inherit power. I think that possibility is more than 90%,” said analyst Cheong Seong-Chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea.
“North Korea is like a dynasty, and we can view the ‘Paektu’ descent as royal blood. So it’s unlikely for anyone to raise any issue over Kim Yo Jong taking over power,” the analyst added.
Dynamic personality
Believed to be in her early 30s, Kim Yo Jong is in charge of North Korea’s propaganda affairs. Earlier this month she was made an alternate member of the powerful Politburo.
Jong has frequently appeared with her brother at public activities, standing out among elderly male officials. Jong has also accompanied Kim Jong Un on his high-stakes summits with US resident Donald Trump. Her proximity to him during those summits led many outsiders to believe she’s essentially North Korea’s No 2 official.
This is what analysts say
“North Korean politics and the three hereditary power transfers have been male-centered. I wonder whether Kim Yo Jong can really overcome bloody socialist power struggles and exercise her power,” said Nam Sung-wook. He is a professor at Korea University in South Korea.
A collective leadership is likely be headed by Choe Ryong Hae. He is North Korea’s ceremonial head of state who officially ranks No 2 in the country’s current power hierarchy, Nam said.
But Choe is still not a Kim family member. That could raise questions about his legitimacy and put North Korea into deeper political chaos, according to other observers.
Other Kim family members who might take over include Kim Pyong Il, the 65-year-old half-brother of Kim Jong Il. Kim Pyong reportedly returned home in November after decades in Europe as a diplomat.
AP