It is all very nice that Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered sweets and celebrated Diwali with soldiers November 5 at the Nowshera sector in the border district of Rajouri in Jammu and Kashmir. His exhortations and platitudes that the Indian defence strategy has to be geared towards tapping technological advances “unlike in the past when wars were fought on horses and elephants” are good propaganda stuff. It may sound funny but no one alive today would remember of any modern war being fought on elephants. However, cavalry forces did exist for a long time as also soldiers riding camels can be currently observed in places like Rajasthan. What the PM said was more a diversionary tactic than a proper response to China’s belligerence and steady and continuing incursions into Indian territories across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. In fact, the government is adopting an ostrich-like policy when it comes to taking on China which is in sharp contrast to the chest-thumping and jingoistic war-mongering towards Pakistan. It is so easy to whip up mob-hysteria against Pakistan as India’s military advantages over Pakistan are too evident, while the potential for electoral gains from communal polarisation is immense. Although, it must be noted, Pakistan’s military as well as political positioning has changed after the Taliban has come to power in Afghanistan. All this is notwithstanding UP CM Yogi Adityanath’s statement that “If Taliban moves towards India, airstrike is ready.”
Pakistan bashing was one of the major reasons for the NDA’s victory in the last elections through the Balakot strike when the goings were looking tough for the Modi government for its acts of omission and commission starting from Demonetisation to botched-up GST and unemployment crisis that took the country decades back.
But, jingoism will not help when China is the adversary. China is not a Moslem country and no religious rhetoric can be created when the Chinese are involved. The persistent denial by the government that China has nibbled Indian territory since the standoff at Galwan Valley last year shows its weak-kneed response and only emboldens China to make further advances. There are disturbing reports that August 30, over 100 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers crossed the LAC at Barahoti in Uttarakhand. Chinese soldiers reportedly entered some 5 km into Indian territory. They remained there for about three hours and used the time to damage infrastructure, including a bridge. Strangely, as reports indicate, Indian troops did not challenge them or force them to leave. The Indian government has not issued an official statement on the incident as yet.
Such a major incursion should have been properly answered both militarily and diplomatically. But, India has chosen to remain silent. This is in keeping with the government’s response during escalation of border tensions with China over the past year. Denial and stony silence were a key element of the Narendra Modi government’s strategy, unlike its aggressive posturing when it comes to Pakistan.
When the media highlighted in April last year China’s build-up of its troops in the western sector of the LAC in eastern Ladakh followed by incursions several kilometers into the Indian side of the border at multiple points, the Indian government dismissed the reports. Indian Army chief General Manoj Naravane described the snowballing crisis as “temporary and short duration face-offs.” Even after the bloody face-off at the Galwan Valley June 15 resulting in the death of 20 Indian soldiers and an undisclosed number of Chinese soldiers, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told an all-party meeting, without naming China, that no one had “intruded into our border, nor has any post been taken over.” In his attempt to project himself as being in command of the situation, he only legitimised China’s occupation and weakened India’s position at the talks.
The 12 rounds of army-level talks on disengagement since then have been tortuous and tardy that only suits China’s game plan of keeping border tension alive, serving its military-strategic interests and sending its message across that it will not take lightly India’s efforts to form alliance with the USA, Japan or Australia to contain it or hurt its economic interests.
This is exactly how the Pentagon describes the situation in its report to the US Congress stating China has been taking “incremental and tactical actions” to press its claims at the LAC. The aim, the report says, is to prevent New Delhi from deepening its relationship with the US. The Pentagon report comes amid heightened tensions between the US and China over the issue of Taiwan. It almost coincided with the warning issued by the most senior US General, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley about China’s military progress. “The PRC (People’s Republic of China) seeks to prevent India to partner more closely with the United States. PRC officials have warned US officials to not interfere with the PRC’s relationship with India,” the Department of Defence told the US Congress last week. The Pentagon has reported that China has been persistently indulging in aggressive and coercive behaviour with its neighbours, India in particular. “Beginning in May 2020, the Chinese Army launched incursions into customarily Indian-controlled territory across the border and has concentrated troops at several standoff locations along the LAC,” the Pentagon said.
According to the report, at the height of the border standoff between China and India in 2020, the Chinese Army installed a fibre optic network in remote areas of the western Himalayas to provide faster communication and increased protection from foreign interception. Intelligence gathering, surveillance and reconnaissance are the main aims of the PLA to streamline decision making processes and shorten response timelines vis-a-vis India, the report said.
This perhaps explains why the political resolution of the BJP’s national executive meeting November 7 was strangely silent on the Indo-China border tension. It seems to be aware that this time around, any false bravado and blatant use of the country’s defence establishment for political gain, which have been a key electoral strategy of the BJP, could backfire.