In electoral politics the ruling dispensation often tries to offset the anti-incumbency mood of the electorate by changing the head of the government with a cleaner and new face whose mettle is yet to be tested. Sometimes the strategy works, sometimes it does not. In recent times in India the BJP has tried the tactic in some state elections and has achieved a measure of success. The beleaguered ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan is desperately making a bid for retaining power using the same method as all eyes are on whether it will secure a majority in the national election a few days away. The party has been dogged by corruption scandals, an economic crisis and deep dissatisfaction with its top leadership. The financial scams and cost of living crisis have assumed such proportions for the past few months that many in the country are even writing off the LDP notwithstanding the disarray in the Opposition. The LDP has been in office for most of the past seven decades.
The election on 27 October is being held a year before it is due following a surprise resignation of the former Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida whose popularity nosedived due to his party’s alleged involvement in financial scams. The Japanese voters are seething with rage against the ruling party. Such a situation seemingly prompted the party to replace Kishida with Shegeru Ishiba hoping that a new face may help it win back the people’s confidence. The gamble may pay off as opinion polls suggest many believe the party will be returned to office winning a majority of the 465 seats of the lower house. Some polls predict the LDP would benefit from a divided Opposition. A poll last weekend by the Kyodo news agency put the LDP at 26.4 per cent, well against the main Opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party’s 12.4 per cent.
However, a new poll by the Nikkei suggests the party could fail to secure a majority. The LDP is aiming to retain at least 233 seats to secure an outright majority – a modest ambition given its current total of 256 seats.
Ishiba’s victory in the LDP leadership race about a month back raised hopes that a gentler version of LDP would emerge from the turmoil of recent months. He is widely seen as a moderate alternative to the ultra-conservative Sanae Takaichi, his main rival. The 67-year-old, soft-spoken Ishiba, a former banker, made the right noises as a liberal leader even before he became PM. He indicated he supported same-sex marriages and the right of married couples to use different surnames. The twin issues are being voiced with full vigour by Japanese women in recent times. These are social and cultural shifts his party has opposed.
He also vowed to take tough measures against LDP lawmakers who plunged the party into crisis following revelations that they had siphoned off unreported profits from the sale of tickets for party events into secret slush funds.
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But in an apparent attempt to placate his rightwing opponents inside the LDP, Ishiba has backpedalled since he assumed charge, telling parliament last week that changing the law on married surnames – in which women almost always take their husband’s name – and the ban on gay marriages “require further examination.” Likewise, he refused to comment on any reforms to Japan’s male-only succession laws. These pronouncements could damage his poll prospects.
Ishiba’s current public support stands at just 28 per cent, according to a recent opinion poll. This marks the lowest initial approval for a new Japanese leader since 2000. Even though this is slightly better than former Prime Minister Kishida’s 18.7 per cent before he exited the leadership race in September, it still fails to reach the critical 30 per cent threshold, which analysts consider a “danger zone” for political leaders.
Japan is at crossroads now. The world is keenly watching the outcome of the election being held only about a week before the US presidential election. The electoral fortunes in the two developed countries will largely impact the rest of the world.