India has much to learn from the current Taiwan scenario. The manner in which China is moving in matters related to that island nation is also indicative of its intent. It is quite possible that, instead of getting into a full scale war like Russia has with Ukraine and got badly stuck, Beijing may prefer to creep into Indian territory. For China, it may not be Taipei but Tawang that will make more sense.
China is angry with both Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and the US over the former’s meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. This was the first such high level meeting last week since the US had broken off its official ties with Taiwan in 1979 and instead recognised the government in Beijing. A Taiwan-US defence treaty was terminated at the same time. China first greeted the engagement between McCarthy and Ing-wen with threats of retaliation and then followed it up with military simulated precision strikes against Taiwan for the past few days in drills around the island. Taiwan’s defence ministry reported multiple air force sorties and that it was monitoring China’s missile forces.
China, which claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, began three days of military exercises around the island 8 April, the day Ing-wen returned from her brief visit to the USA.
Chinese state television reported that the combat readiness patrols and drills around Taiwan were continuing.
“Under the unified command of the theatre joint operations command centre, multiple types of units carried out simulated joint precision strikes on key targets on Taiwan island and the surrounding sea areas, and continue to maintain an offensive posture around the island,” it said.
The Chinese military’s Eastern Theatre Command even put out a short animation of the simulated attacks on its WeChat account, showing missiles fired from land, sea and air into Taiwan with two of them exploding in flames as they hit their targets. Taiwan’s defence ministry said that as of 9 April they had spotted 70 Chinese aircraft, including Su-30 fighters and H-6 bombers, as well as 11 ships, around Taiwan. The ministry said they were paying particular attention to the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force which is in charge of China’s land-based missile system.
Stakes are very high for both China and the US so far as Taiwan is concerned. It is a deeply emotive issue for the Communist Party of China and Chinese President Xi Jinping. China has claimed Taiwan as its territory since the defeated Republic of China government fled to the island in 1949 after losing a civil war with former Chinese leader Mao Zedong’s communists. China has repeatedly called on US officials not to engage with Taiwanese leaders, viewing it as support for Taiwan’s desire to be viewed as separate from China.
China has never renounced the use of force to bring democratically governed Taiwan under its control and in 2005 passed a law giving Beijing the legal basis for military action against Taiwan if it secedes or seems about to. This position is particularly worrisome and the threat of Chinese attack on Taiwan has increased manifold since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. International observers have been expressing the fear that China is keenly observing Russia’s forcible occupation of Ukraine and watching how the US-led Western powers handle the issue with the ulterior motive of forcibly taking over Taiwan itself, someday at its convenience.
To pre-empt such an eventuality the US, under the Joe Biden administration, has already warned that it would provide military assistance to Taiwan in case the latter is attacked by China. This has led to further deterioration of US-China relations.
The US did not stop at that. Its former House Speaker Pelosi had visited Taiwan some months ago to express solidarity with the people of Taiwan inviting protests from China.
The question is why China is getting angry over such posturing by both Taiwanese and US leadership and also why America and Taiwan are provoking China. China accuses the USA of using Taiwan like a “porcupine” and keeping the option open for attacking China from its military base whenever needed. It also charges that the US military-industry is hugely profiting from the conflict over Taiwan by selling weapons to the island.
The US and Taiwan, however, charge China with attempting to rob the people of Taiwan of their democracy and freedom. Taiwan’s position is that only its people have the right to decide how they will be ruled.
It appears China has, at the moment, only one option to deal with Taiwan. It can ratchet up tension through military drills each time the US and Taiwan show to the world their proximity disregarding China’s concerns. The US calculation, it appears, is that Xi will not follow in the footsteps of Russian President Vladimir Putin who is facing united opposition by the West for his misadventure in Ukraine. This may ensure the status quo in Taiwan despite the war drills.