Attention is now focused on Goa, where chief minister Manohar Parrikar is reported to be seriously ill and may not be in a position to head the BJP-led government anymore. The Congress, the single-largest party in the state, is obviously seeing a window of opportunity. Having robbed the Congress of success in the last assembly polls — or virtually snatched victory from the jaws of defeat — the BJP might as well be running out of its political steam in the state due to the incapacitation of the chief minister. Nothing goes to show the ministry will fall. But nothing is reassuring enough that the present government can last for long.
Notably, in a 40-member assembly where the Congress has 16 members, the BJP with strength of only 14, skilfully managed to grab power with the help of some regional parties and independents after the February 2017 elections. The tricolour party was caught napping while the BJP used or abused the clout it enjoyed at the Centre. Manohar Parrikar’s personal rapport with the regional party leaders immensely helped the BJP to sideline the Congress after the polls. With Parrikar down, the same political arithmetic might not hold together. Both the regional parties and even some independents are game for power play. For the Congress party, while returning to power in the state is a matter of first priority, it would be more than satisfied if it can at least pull down the BJP government there and score political brownie points. In the process, if the CM post goes to a small party, with Congress playing second fiddle, as in Karnataka, that too should suffice. This is seen as the reason why the Congress camp is hyperactive in the context of the CM’s hospitalisation.
Goa is a small state, having won statehood after remaining as a Union Territory for decades. In normal times, local politics would not make much of a difference to the national clout of either the Congress or the BJP. But, these are unusual times. For the Congress, this obviously is the time to settle scores and prove that it retains enough energy to take on the BJP in the next Lok Sabha polls. Just as it conceded ground to the JDS in Karnataka so also getting Goa out of the clutches of the BJP could be part of a larger power play. It’s not clear yet as to whether the Congress can succeed this time to pull the saffron party down from power in the tiny state. That possibility, however, cannot be altogether ruled out. Being the largest party in the assembly, the Congress still retains substantial support in Goa. It is this strength that the central leadership of the party is hoping to cash in on, sooner than later.
This is the time when the Congress requires a lot more of moral courage to prove that it can deliver. This is the season for it to convince the likes of the BSP and other regional parties, not the least of them being the Trinamool Congress of West Bengal, that the Grand Old Party can still be the fulcrum on which the rest of the Opposition can pivot when the call comes for the Lok Sabha polls. The 2019 polls could be decisive and hard-fought. There already is a sense of unity among the principal Opposition parties to collectively take on the BJP. The ball was set rolling from Karnataka, and the South is already proving to be an impregnable fortress, keeping the BJP a safe distance away.
Goa may or may not add to the BJP’s embarrassment that it faces in the South.
Opinion polls are already hinting at a washout for the BJP in key battleground states in the north, such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. If the Hindi belt turns its back on the BJP, it spells only doom for the saffron party. Goa, thus, assumes more importance in the Opposition’s scheme of things.