Bad news comes for India from Maldives. The Indian Ocean archipelago occupies a crucial position in the geopolitics of the region and it is courted by both India and China. The political power play in the country is dictated by the choice of its top leaders between its close neighbours India and China. The just announced Presidential election results show China is preferred to India by the party that has emerged victorious. In fact, the election has been touted as a referendum on whether the country should be forging strong ties with India or China. The overwhelming mandate has gone to the candidate whose party has pledged to wean the country away from India’s influence and cement ties with China. Maldives Opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu, who supports closer relationship with China, won the presidential runoff on 30 September securing over 53 per cent of the vote. One of Muizzu’s electoral promises was to remove Indian troops from the Maldives and balance the country’s trade relations, which he said, were heavily in India’s favour. This is another major example of a setback of diplomatic maneuverings of the Indian government.
The defeated President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has been perceived to be pro-India and the popular mood is against India. This was reflected in the voting pattern with Solih managing to get 46 per cent of the vote. As is customary, Muizzu’s victory speech underscored the need for the new government to work for building the country’s future “sinking differences” with the Opposition.
On the surface, Solih lost to Muizzu because of his failure to manage the country’s economy battered by COVID-19. The people were also angry with his handling of the country and failing to redeem his election pledge of rooting out corruption. They were apparently not so much bothered about the attempts by India and China to bring the archipelago within their respective orbit of influence as opposed to the economic difficulties they have been passing through.
Yet, during the run-up to the election Muizzu’s party, People’s National Congress (PNC) and its ally Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), whipped up “sovereignty” issues and launched an “India out” campaign to oust Indian military personnel. PPM chief and former Maldives President Abdulla Yameen is the main brain behind the tirade against India. He has been serving a jail term of 11 years on charges of corruption which also debarred him from contesting the presidential election this time. He was at odds with India during his tenure when he openly advocated better ties with China. He also paved the way for a free trade agreement with China and loans for infrastructure projects. The Opposition then, however, slammed him for leading Maldives into a debt trap. On the other hand, after coming to power Solih publicly announced an “India First” policy. New Delhi also responded by undertaking many infrastructure projects, helping the Maldives during the pandemic. However none of those are completed today. For this reason the duel between Solih and Muizzu in the run-off was projected as an India versus China contest. In this sense the results are a setback for India.
Muizzu is a smart player. He has not himself criticised India the way his party has. This is a clever ploy. The most challenging task before him is to shore up the Maldivian economy as debt repayments come due. He cannot afford to let his country go the Sri Lankan way which virtually went bankrupt.
Solih, who was elected President in 2018, was battling allegations by Muizzu that he had allowed India an unchecked presence in the country. But, Solih insisted the Indian military’s presence in the Maldives was only to build a dockyard under an agreement between the two governments and that his country’s sovereignty would not be violated.
However, PPM leader Yameen had made the Maldives a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) during his presidency from 2013 to 2018. The initiative is meant to build roads, ports and highways to expand trade and China’s influence across Asia, Africa and Europe.
The Maldives is made up of 1,200 coral islands in the Indian Ocean located by the main shipping route between the East and the West.
The question that arises is how India’s foreign services establishment could allow the situation in Maldives to take a turn that helped public opinion veer away from India and toward China. It only shows colossal diplomatic failure that helps China encircle India even further. Maldives presidential election results should act as a wake-up call about China’s tenacity to corner India using every opportunity that comes its way.