On paper the BRICS summit being held in Kazan, Russia, from 22 October to 24 October aims at strengthening multilateralism for “just” global development and security. But, in reality it is a great opportunity for Russian President Vladimir Putin, locked in a prolonged war with Ukraine, to showcase that he is not as isolated in the international community as the West wants the world to believe. His objective may run counter to the ostensible efforts of China, India, Brazil and the Arab world to find a way to end the war in Ukraine. Putin seems to be too eager to use the rising clout of the BRICS group, which now accounts for 45 per cent of the world’s population and 35 per cent of its economy, for his own security. The fact that China accounts for over half of BRICS’ economic strength bolsters Putin’s hope to achieve his goal in Ukraine because of his bonhomie with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The West has called Putin a pariah since he invaded Ukraine and imposed tough sanctions on Russia intended to isolate the country’s economy from global markets. Hosting the BRICS summit in this backdrop helps Putin fend off the pressure being put by the West. He is greeting 20 heads of state, including Xi, Narendra Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezesh. This is one of the large-scale foreign policy events ever in Russia.
The loud and clear message that Putin is sending out to the world, especially the West, is that attempts to isolate Russia and severely cripple its economy through sanctions have failed since he has so many friends across the globe forming the BRICS bloc. This grouping is often described as a counterweight to the Western-led world and the G7 countries as it has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia, too, has been invited to join. Russian officials have even indicated that another 30 countries want to join BRICS or seek closer ties with the bloc. Some of these nations will take part in the summit.
But, the real aim of Putin is to convince BRICS members to find an alternative to the dollar for global payments. The Russian economy is facing multitude of problems primarily due to the payment crisis in its cross-border trade and payment made in the US dollar which is the main currency in the global market. Russia’s main interest lies in breaking the dominance of the US dollar. It wants BRICS countries to create an alternative trade mechanism and cross-border settlement system that does not involve the dollar, the euro or any of the G7 currencies. If it succeeds in the endeavour, the sanctions imposed by the US-led West could be greatly neutralised.
However, it is easier said than done. The roadblock to this ambitious project of Putin is that many members of the BRICS grouping are keen on maintaining good and stable political and economic relations with the West. As such they are unlikely to take any decisive step in evolving an alternative system of payment curbing the control of dollars.
China too can ill afford to antagonize or even ignore the affluent West since most of its high end products are consumed there, not in Africa, South America or even Asia. India too is a low end product market for China. Also, unlike Russia which has got embroiled in a seemingly unending war with Ukraine in which it has failed to make much headway, China can be seen as a clever nation interested in exploiting global markets and winning economic battles, rather than fighting actual wars using guns and bullets. This focus of China might, eventually, manifest to make it discreetly distance itself from the current Russian aim. If that happens sooner than later, Putin could very well be dethroned from his position of power.
There are other problems afflicting the BRICS bloc that prevent it from becoming a really effective global grouping. There are internal conflicts among the member countries that defy solutions. For example, the relations between China and India often get strained over border disputes and encroachment of territories, this notwithstanding the latest understanding between the two countries which has now stipulated India to withdraw beyond the pre-Galwan conflict LAC. There is also tension between two of the newest members, Egypt and Ethiopia, while Shi’ite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia have long been regional rivals despite recent thaw in their relations.
However, the importance of BRICS is slowly, but steadily rising because of super-power rivalry. If developed countries stick together for their mutual interests under US leadership, third world countries could possibly want Russia to be on their side to safeguard their interests. How far Russia will be able to act beyond its borders is a question that time alone can answer.