The results from the assembly poll scene, which ran parallel to the Lok Sabha polls in four states, saw mixed trends. While Odisha saw the ruling BJD retaining power, Andhra Pradesh has dumped the ruling Telugu Desam Party. In the north-eastern states, BJP retained power in Arunachal Pradesh while the Sikkim Democratic Front lost the polls in Sikkim and another regional entity, the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM), won. The mechanics of politics in the North-East is altogether different, and often change with times. SKM might now be an ally of the BJP. What the North-East results saw prominently was the exit of India’s long-serving chief minister Pawan Kumar Chamling, who became CM in 1994 and remained in an unassailable position till this round of polls.
Odisha saw the BJD’s triumph again and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik returning to power for the fifth time in a row. The party that has not allied with the NDA and the UPA is ploughing a lonely furrow and retained power yet again. Continuity in governance has its virtues, just as change has its own too. In a scenario of continuity, the schemes initiated by the government can carry forward and new promises could be implemented without hindrance. The BJP has majorly increased its LS tally from the state this time by winning 8 out of the total 21 seats. This will be a wake-up call to the ruling establishment, though people’s preference for the regional leadership was clearly pronounced in the assembly polls.
Present day Andhra Pradesh was formed in 2014 following a bifurcation and coming into being of the Telangana state. Its first chief minister and seasoned politician Chandrababu Naidu has been voted out and principal rival Jaganmohan Reddy at the head of the YSR Congress grabbed power. Naidu talked big, promised a world-class new capital city in Amaravati without having the resources to realise his dreams, and left the work half done. Naidu had experienced reverses in the past too. As CM of unitary Andhra Pradesh, his works to modernise capital Hyderabad were exemplary. But, he was voted out in the face of massive rural distress which he failed to sense or tackle. After being in the oblivion for some time, he found fresh hope for his party in the new Andhra Pradesh but met with a similar fate again. Jagan and his party carry with them a stigma of corruption left behind by his late father YSR, a former Congress CM. But luck favoured him this time because of the people’s disenchantment with Naidu and non acceptance of the BJP.
Seaside states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal together form a geographically contiguous stretch through the southern and eastern parts of the nation, all of them lashed by waves. These states stood by regional entities in this round of polls. Adjoining Karnataka and Telangana are ruled by regional entities too, as also Bihar with its non-BJP chief minister. Tamil Nadu proved the might of DMK. The saffron wave with its epicentre in the central Hindi belt substantially lost its strength as it headed south and east. Notably, also, the principal opposition – Congress party – has failed to make a strong impact in any of these states, except for Kerala where Rahul Gandhi contested from Waynad. Regional entities held their clout. Yet, the rise of the BJP as a political power in Bengal and Odisha cannot be lost sight of.
BJP, having got new energy from the present LS polls, might revert to its obsession of targeting non-BJP governments in the months ahead. Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and West Bengal might form part of its first action plan. From the looks of it, the BJD may have less to worry; and so too the Congress government of Captain Amrinder Singh in Punjab. The Aam Admi Party of chief minister Arvind Kejriwal lost the LS polls in Delhi. If the trend is repeated in the approaching assembly polls, the political experiment tried by Kejriwal might die a natural death.