Midterm elections in the US November 8 are the first to be held since the Presidential election. In spite of the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol by pro-Donald Trump supporters, Joe Biden was declared President. The current midterm election results will have far-reaching consequences for both the US and the rest of the world. The future of US democracy is on trial just as President Joe Biden’s handling of the deepening US economic crisis and the growing polarisation among Americans will be put to test.
As it normally happens in almost every midterm, this time as well the ruling Democrats are expected to fare poorly and Republicans may be catapulted into centre-stage of the US decision making process gaining control over the House of Representatives and even the Senate.
At stake are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate – the two bodies making up the Congress. The current tally in the House of Representatives is 220 belonging to Democrats and 212 to the Republicans with three vacancies. In the Senate, 35 of the 100 seats are up for election and of these, Democrats have 14 against the Republicans’ 21. Several states will also elect secretaries of state and governors.
Poll predictions favour a Republican win for a variety of reasons, including a negative outlook for the US economy and a sharp drop in Biden’s approval rating that is hovering around 40 per cent. A majority of Republicans are out to capitalise on the cost of living crisis. On the contrary, Democrats are trying to downplay the economic issue and are pitting the future of democracy at peril in the hands of Trump and his followers as their main agenda. The spectre of threat to democracy has loomed large following the recent vicious attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband. Added to this is the Supreme Court’s overturning of the Roe vs Wade verdict which was in favour of abortion. The latter led to a surge in registrations and more than half of registered voters say abortion will be a key factor to determine their choice. Biden’s win was facilitated, among other things, by the support of women voters. During the midterm as well, women are expected to rally behind Democrats for the anti-abortion verdict. Whether women voters would respond the way they did in 2020 is doubtful since they are now concerned about the cost of living and rising gas prices.
Realising that his Presidency has so far caused widespread disenchantment among people, Biden chose the peril of democracy in his solemn speech November 2 as the centre point of the Democrats’ election propaganda. The Republican opponents were, however, quick to dismiss it as alarmist posturing. On the contrary, Trump’s violent rhetoric on the so-called electoral fraud is spreading like wildfire.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk, the new owner of Twitter has openly asked people to support Republicans. Author Stephen King has said whether people pay for the Blue Tick of Twitter or not, they should vote Blue (Democrat). A meme doing the rounds says Voting is just like Driving. To go backward choose ‘R’ and to go forward choose ‘D’.
A triumph for Republicans will mean a crippled administration, facing legislative stagnation, hostile committees and investigations on matters such as Hunter Biden’s business dealings. Trump, who has actively campaigned alongside Republican congressional candidates, still enjoys a certain level of popularity, investigations into his alleged smuggling of classified documents notwithstanding. In fact, the former President has maintained a favourable rating of around 44 per cent. Moreover, in 2020 liberals had turned up to vote with the agenda of ousting Trump. But, the enthusiasm seems to be on the wane now.
In such a scenario, Republicans regaining control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate may be a shot in Trump’s arm. Whether he would contest the Presidential race or any other moderate Republican would replace him is a million dollar question. If Trump announces his intention to run in 2024, electoral attitudes may also change as his track record of intolerance and hate campaign would surely be revived to scuttle his chances. The midterm is set to redefine US politics like never before.