The math game behind the US presidential elections

Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump and Joe Biden Photo courtesy: abc.net.au

Washington: Even though the US is a democratic country like India, the polling process is completely different. In the US presidential elections the popular votes do not matter, what matters is the Electoral College votes. When it comes to who wins the White House, the Electoral College will ultimately decide the winner once all the votes around the US are counted.

Popular votes don’t matter

There have been five occasions in American history that the U.S. presidential election was not won by the person with the most overall votes. It has happened twice in the last 20 years. This is because of the influence of the Electoral College votes.

Nearly 2.9 million more people voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential elections, but she still lost. President Donald Trump won because he took the Electoral College, under a system set up in the US Constitution and refined through the centuries.

Importance of Electoral College

In the presidential election, each state gets a certain number of electoral votes based on its number of senators and representatives. Because each state has two senators, the key factor is each state’s number of representatives – which is based on population. This is one reason why the Census, taken every 10 years, is vital. It helps determine how many seats in the House each state gets.

California is the US state with the maximum population. It has 53 representatives in the US House of Representatives. With the votes of two senators, the total number of electoral votes the state has is 55. California is followed by Texas with 38 electoral votes. After that, New York and Florida are tied with 29 votes each. Then, it goes to Illinois and Pennsylvania with 20 each.

Number of electoral votes for each state in the US:

California             55 votes

Texas                   38 votes

Florida                 29 votes

New York            29 votes

Pennsylvania      20 votes

Illinois                  20 votes

Ohio                     18 votes

Georgia                16 votes

Michigan             16 votes

North Carolina    15 votes

New Jersey          14 votes

Virginia                13 votes

Washington        12 votes

Massachusetts    11 votes

Arizona                11 votes

Indiana                11 votes

Tennessee           11 votes

Maryland            10 votes

Minnesota           10 votes

Missouri              10 votes

Wisconsin           10 votes

Alabama              9 votes

Colorado             9 votes

South Carolina    9 votes

Kentucky             8 votes

Louisiana             8 votes

Connecticut        7 votes

Oklahoma           7 votes

Oregon                7 votes

Arkansas              6 votes

Iowa                     6 votes

Utah                    6 votes

Nevada                6 votes

Mississippi          6 votes

Kansas                 6 votes

Nebraska             5 votes

West Virginia      5 votes

New Mexico        5 votes

Hawaii                 4 votes

Idaho                   4 votes

Maine                  4 votes

Rhode Island       4 votes

New Hampshire  4 votes

Alaska                  3 votes

Montana             3 votes

Delaware             3 votes

Columbia             3 votes

North Dakota      3 votes

South Dakota      3 votes

Vermont              3 votes

Wyoming            3 votes

A presidential candidate will have to get 270 of these 538 Electoral College votes to go to the White House. Joe Biden may win in more states than Donald Trump, but if the latter wins in California, he will certainly have a huge advantage. The voters will only determine which state has gone to either Trump of Biden. However, they will not be able to determine which man will go to the White House. Hence the fate of both men is in the hands of the Electoral College. Usually these electors ‘pledge’ to vote for the presidential and vice-presidential candidates that receive the most votes in their respective states.

Trump’s best path

Trump has several paths to 270, but his best route hinges on winning Florida and Pennsylvania. If he wins both states and holds onto North Carolina and Arizona, which he narrowly carried in 2016, and also Georgia and Ohio, which he won in 2016 but is now competitive, he will win. With 29 electoral votes, Florida is arguably the most crucial state for Trump. A loss there would make it nearly impossible for him to retain the White House.

What Biden needs

Democrat Joe Biden’s campaign is laser-focused on the states in the Midwest and close by that Trump flipped in 2016 — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. He’s also making a big play for Arizona, a state that hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential candidate since 1996. Biden is also redoubling his focus on Florida, the biggest prize among the perennial battlegrounds. It is a state that would virtually block Trump’s reelection if it swings Democratic.

 

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