Pradeep Kumar Panda
Recently the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) drew global attention on transport and climate by providing fresh and overwhelming evidence about the urgency of the climate situation. The IPCC’s latest report says global temperatures will reach 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels within the next 12 years unless we act now.
Transport bears huge responsibility in the current situation as the sector contributes to about a quarter of global energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and 18 per cent of all manmade emissions in the global economy. A business-as-usual scenario means this figure will continue rising to one third of all emissions by 2040.
This means cutting transport emissions will be central to solving climate equations. To kickstart this process, the Sustainable Mobility for All initiative (Sum4All) just released a preliminary global roadmap of action towards sustainable mobility that lays out concrete policy measures for a healthier transport future.
A coalition of 55 leading public and private organisations is thoroughly looking at all dimensions of sustainability: safety, efficiency, equitable access, and environmental impact.
As global leaders head to Poland for the COP24 Climate Conference, now is a good time to identify the most effective solutions to lower carbon footprint of transport. In that spirit, the need of the hour is to draw judicious policy interventions and act on them rigorously.
By 2050, road transport is projected to see GHG emissions rise by more than half, international aviation by 300-700per cent, while estimates for international maritime transport range between 50-250per cent for different scenarios. In light of this, limiting the global average temperature increase will require sweeping changes across the entire sector. To drive this ambition, all major modes will need to work closely together.
A reduction in transport-related GHG emissions will only be made possible by reducing transport’s dependency on fossil fuels and increasing its reliance on alternative energy technologies. With 96per cent of global transport’s energy mix currently dependent on fossil fuels, this is more easily said than done. Many fossil fuel suppliers consider that, by 2050, oil will still be the dominant fuel source for mobility, with natural gas and electricity taking on a growing role.
Focusing on alternative energy technologies for vehicles, it is no surprise that they make up only a ninth of the total revenue generated by the transport market. Clean diesel takes the lion’s share of the alternative fuel market, while the market share of electric and hybrid vehicles—often presented as the most promising pathway toward greener mobility—will need to grow exponentially before they can make a real difference.
In markets where electric vehicles are taking hold, another challenge will be to ensure that the electricity itself comes from clean sources. Although it is leading the way in electric vehicle adoption, China, for instance, still produces 70per cent of its energy from coal.
From Chile to California, governments and operators are increasingly looking into the potential of renewable energy options such as solar, wind, and bioenergy to power transport systems.
Waste-to-energy technologies offer a promising alternative to more traditional renewable energy. The city of Sacramento, for example, is already using waste to power commuter and school buses.
Application to the aviation industry is also under development. These alternative technologies open up a range of new possibilities to reduce fossil fuel consumption and production, create shorter energy supply chains, and make the most of locally available resources. There are, however, important technological obstacles to overcome, and scalability remains a question.
The discussion on future of mobility focuses largely on potential of innovation such as electric and autonomous vehicles. These technologies have key role to play in reducing emissions, yet they favour a car-centric vision of mobility that does not address other adverse consequences such as traffic congestion, noise, or air pollution.
To make transport sustainable, we cannot run the same old system with a cleaner engine. Future generations deserve bolder, richer transport conversations that look at all possible solutions simultaneously — including the toughest ones — from cleaner energy to demand management, behaviour change, and virtual mobility.
The writer is an economist.