Turkey is once again embroiled in a battle between an autocratic ruler and a social democrat who has become the only challenger against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with the potential to beat him at the ballot box. The crisis has snowballed after Erdogan jailed on March 23 the social democrat and self-proclaimed Ataturkist Ekrem Imamoglu, who has been mayor of Istanbul since 2019. Significantly, the arrest was made the day he was to be declared as the Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate for the next presidential election.
Predictably, Erdogan has levelled multiple accusations at his opponent, including that of “corruption.” As the government denies it is a case of witch-hunting on the plea that the arrest was ordered by the court, Imamoglu pleads innocence. To make matters worse for Erdogan, Imamoglu got nearly 15 million votes in a presidential primary organised by Turkey’s main opposition CHP. In a sign of growing national support, the party announced on March 24 that an estimated 1.7 million members were joined by 13 million non-party members in supporting Imamoglu to become its official candidate for the next presidential election, which is due to take place in 2028.
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That the people are rallying behind Imamoglu is clear both from the number of votes he has secured in the primary and also the widespread protests that erupted following his arrest. Trouble had been brewing since he was detained on March 20. His formal arrest on March 24 exacerbated the unrest. Erdogan’s critics insist that it was the looming primary that triggered the arrest. People turned out in such large numbers that voting was extended by three and a half hours. The CHP commented that the results have completely opened Erdogan’s legitimacy to question and made an early election inevitable.
For Imamoglu’s part he has denied all the allegations against him and called for more nationwide protests. In a statement from prison, he exuded confidence and said the “record level of participation” in the primary made him “very happy”.
That there have been attempts from the government to suppress dissenting voices is clear from the fact that the government sought to order the closure of hundreds of social media accounts on X. The Elon Musk-owned free-speech extolling company announced its objections to “multiple court orders” from the Turkish Information and Communication Technologies Authority to block over 700 accounts of news organizations, journalists, political figures, students, and others within Turkey. At the same time it also suspended several accounts linked to the opposition. Many of the accounts were reportedly associated with university activists organising protests. Turkey’s Ministry of the Interior said the authorities had found hundreds of social media accounts suspected of inciting hatred.
The fact remains that there has been worrying regression of democracy in Turkey since 2013. The country has witnessed brutal and bloody end of peace negotiations with the Kurds and the imprisonment of political figures. Added to this were the repercussions of the failed coup d’état of 2016 and the gigantic purges within public institutions of members of the brotherhood of the preacher Fethullah Gulen with whom the President had been allied for decades. Then came the adoption of freedom-destroying laws, the dismissal of mayors and the increasing number of arrests of intellectuals, artists and journalists on the left or close to the liberal opposition. This pattern is being followed by autocratic rulers in different countries across the continents currently.
Erdogan may appear safe at this stage as the presidential election is slated to be held three years later. He has apparently a long time to draw his strategy to take on his rival at the polls. However, the growing economic crisis in Turkey and the groundswell of support for Imamoglu appear to be ominous for Erdogan and can be read as signs of hope for the liberal forces in the Opposition.
